北京市能源和大气雾霾相关污染物排放情景解析  

Scenario Analysis of Energy and Air Pollutants Emission in Beijing

作　　者：姜克隽[1] 贺晨旻[2] 庄幸[1] 朱松丽[1] 高霁[3] 刘嘉 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,北京100038 [2]北京大学城市和环境学院,北京100871 [3]中国农业科学研究院,北京100081 [4]人木咨询(北京)有限公司,北京100038

出　　处：《环境影响评价》2017年第4期13-18,共6页Environmental Impact Assessment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0207503)

摘　　要：北京市大气雾霾控制行动方案在不断地推进中,大气质量也在不断改善。通过研究未来北京市大气雾霾相关一次源污染物的排放,以期分析未来实现城市空气质量PM_(2.5)的达标路径。城市如何加快经济发展方式的转变,压缩化石燃料消耗量的增长空间,实现污染物排放总量的持续大幅度削减,使PM_(2.5)浓度达到《环境空气质量标准》的要求,是目前形势下迫切需要解决的问题。本研究基于排放源的解析,分析以能源活动为主的综合评估模型,研究未来产业结构和能源结构的调整路线;分析北京等主要城市空气质量达标所需的减排量及减排路径,并提出推动城市空气质量PM_(2.5)达标的路线图和政策建议。Beijing＇ s action plan to control air pollution is progressing, and the air quality in Beijing is improving. In order to understand the future pathway for air pollution control, this paper presents the study results on PM：.5 related primary emission in Beijing. How to adjust economic structure, reduce coal use and fossil fuel use, cut air pollutant emission in large scale so as to reach the air quality target of Beijing, are the key issues to be solved. Based on the emission source inventory, this study analyzes the emission from energy activities by energy structure change with a quantitative modeling tool, presents the emission reduction amount and pathway required for air quality targets, and puts forward the policy suggestions.

关 键 词：大气雾霾 PM2.5 排放 情景 北京 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]