经济增长进程中出口结构的门限效应演化分析  

Evolutionary Analysis of Threshold Effects on Export Structure during Economic Growth Process

作　　者：李梦洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《上海立信会计金融学院学报》2017年第3期111-120,共10页Journal of Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"新丝绸之路经济带背景下新疆加工贸易转型升级研究"(15BJL074);石河子大学兵团屯垦经济研究中心重点项目"基于丝绸之路经济带产业协同效应的新疆产业空间布局优化研究"(XJEDU020215C01)

摘　　要：新兴的经济发展理论认为,一国的国际经济竞争力受外贸结构的影响和制约。本文在此基础之上,基于出口贸易视角,运用平滑转换回归模型(STR),通过分析其非线性特征证明门限效应的存在,呈现了新疆和全国1990-2014年最优出口结构的形成及其在经济增长进程中的演变过程,展示了相同阶段新疆与全国出口结构表现出的截然不同的转换升级特征,即新疆出口结构转型升级初始时间晚于全国,门限效应持续时间短于全国,出口结构转换升级速度高于全国,转换升级质量高于全国;并通过进一步研究得出,在新疆出口结构升级过程中,其对经济增长的边际贡献率具有显著的推动作用。The new economic development theory thought that foreign trade structure affected and restricted its international economic competence for a country. Based on the theory, from the aspect of export trade, the author established smooth transition regression STR model and analyzed its nonlinear characteristics and proved the existence of threshold effect. The analysis showed the best export structure formation in Xinjiang and national-wide during 1990-2014 and its evolution process during the economy growth period. The above analysis proved the totally different transitional and upgrade characteristics of export structure between Xinjiang and national-wide during the same period. The start of export structure transition and upgrade in Xinjiang was later than other areas in China. The duration of threshold effect was shorter than other areas in China. The speed and quality of export structure transition and upgrade were higher than average level in China. With further research, the author proved that export structure transition and upgrade in Xinjiang had obvious marginal contribution to enhance local economic development during the transition and upgrade period.

关 键 词：出口结构 经济增长 门限效应 平滑转换回归模型 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]