能见度不良条件下海上交通风险动态预评估  

Dynamic Risk Pre-Evaluation for Maritime Traffic Under Limited Visibility

作　　者：戴厚兴[1,2] 吴兆麟[1] DAI Houxing WU Zhaolin(School of Navigation, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China Yantai Salvage Bureau, Ministry of Transport, Yantai 264012, China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]交通运输部烟台打捞局,山东烟台264012

出　　处：《中国航海》2017年第2期65-68,82,共5页Navigation of China

基　　金：交通运输部海事局项目(0706-14400003N010)

摘　　要：为提高海事主管部门的海上交通安全监管能力和服务保障水平,降低在能见度不良条件下发生海上交通事故的可能性,提出运用模糊综合评价方法建立能见度不良条件下的海上交通风险动态预评估模型,确立风险矩阵,拓展海上风险管理的思路和方法。实例分析结果表明,提出的风险动态预评估模型可有效提供具有实际指导意义的风险预警和安全操作建议,可为研发具有可视化、智能化预警监控功能的能见度不良条件下的海上交通风险动态预评估系统提供重要的理论支持。The general idea and method to determine the risk matrix for maritime traffic under restricted visibility is presen- ted for maritime departments to improve the supervision of maritime traffic and their service level. The example analysis shows that the proposed new pre-evaluation model can effectively provide practical early warning and operational suggestions for maritime traffic management under restricted visibility. This work can provide important theoretical support for developing the visualized and intelligent dynamic risk pre-evaluation system.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 海上交通安全 能见度不良 模糊综合评价 动态风险预评估 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]