中国真实发展指标测算及政策模拟  

China's GPI Estimation and Policy Simulation

作　　者：侯瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《内蒙古社会科学》2017年第4期151-159,共9页Inner Mongolia Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"基于社会核算矩阵的电价改革影响机制分析及一般均衡政策模拟研究"(编号:15BTJ001);东北财经大学科研项目"高等教育外部回报率;地区发展差异及国际比较"(编号:DUFE2015Y013)

摘　　要：克服了国内生产总值(GDP)指标的缺陷,真实发展指标(GPI)为判断经济的健康程度和地区发展趋势提供了更为准确的信息,实践证实可作为GDP的首选替代。基于GPI理论与方法考察,构建中国GPI指标体系,估算中国1978~2014年GPI的时间序列数据,并分经济开放度、减税、城镇化三个政策情景模拟我国的可持续发展趋势,从而提出对策建议。Genuine Progress Indicator （GPI} is one of the first alternatives to GDP vetted by the scientific community and used regularly by government and non- governmental organizations worldwide. GPI can be used to measure sustainable development like green GDP. The paper constructs China＇s GPI framework. GPI values of China from 1978 to 2014 are estimated based on the framework. Economic openness, tax cuts and growth in urbanization are simulated based on GPI value. Some policy suggestions are given finally. Policies aimed at reducing environmental costs are necessary if China is to enjoy a sustainable pattern of non - declining economic wel- fare. China must pursue a higher rate of productivity in material and energy consumption in order to keep envi- ronmental pressures to a minimum level.

关 键 词：经济指标 环境指标 社会指标 城镇化 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]