图格里克汇率变动对蒙古国对外贸易的影响  

The Influence of Tugrik Exchange Rate Floating on Mongolian Foreign Trade

作　　者：崔艳娟[1] 阿兹图希格 都仁嘉日嘎乐 

机构地区：[1]大连工业大学管理学院,辽宁大连116034 [2]蒙古国财经大学经济学院,蒙古国乌兰巴托13381

出　　处：《内蒙古社会科学》2017年第4期205-212,共8页Inner Mongolia Social Sciences

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目"制度环境对我国金融包容发展的影响"(编号:2014M560199)

摘　　要：考虑蒙古国出口商品结构单一,进口商品具有不完全替代的特点,构建进口和出口需求模型,采用蒙古国2000~2016年季度数据为样本,分析并检验了蒙古国图格里克的汇率变动对进口贸易、出口贸易和贸易收支的影响。结果表明:图格里克汇率的变动能够影响蒙古国的进出口贸易,图格里克的贬值能够促进出口、抑制进口;马歇尔—勒纳条件在蒙古能够得到验证,但图格里克的贬值对贸易收支的影响是非线性的。Mongolian export structure is single and import commodity is imperfect substitutable. Consider- ing these trade features, this paper investigates the influence of Tugrik exchange rate floating on import, export and trade balance in Mongolia using the import and export demand model with Mongolian quarterly data from 2000 to 2016. The results suggest that Tugrik exchange rate floating can affect import and export trade in Mongo- lia, and devaluation of the Tugrik can increase export and decrease import. Meanwhile, it suggests a fulfillment of Marshall - Lerner condition in Mongolia. However, the Tugrik devaluation has a nonlinear influence on trade balance

关 键 词：图格里克汇率 蒙古国对外贸易 马歇尔—勒纳条件 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F832.6[经济管理—产业经济]