ECFA实施对海峡两岸农产品贸易成本的影响  

Effect of the Implementation of ECFA on Cross-strait Agricultural Product Trade Cost

作　　者：杜世雄[1] 李宝艳[1] 吴华香[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学马克思主义学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《台湾农业探索》2017年第3期16-21,共6页Taiwan Agricultural Research

基　　金：福建省教育厅人文社科一般项目(JAS150238)

摘　　要：采取Novy(2011)模型对2000—2013年两岸农产品的贸易成本进行测度分析,并实证分析了ECFA对海峡两岸农产品贸易成本的影响。结果表明,两岸农产品贸易成本总体上呈下降的趋势,但ECFA对海峡两岸农产品贸易成本下降并未起到显著作用,资金成本、汇率、劳动力成本、人均GDP对贸易成本的影响较显著,地理距离对于贸易成本影响不显著。研究认为,两岸经贸合作需在政治互信的基础上进一步深化,要不是进一步完善ECFA条款,扩大ECFA早收清单中农产品数量,并保证经济平稳、汇率稳定。By taking the Novy model（2011）,the trade cost of cross-strait agricultural products from 2000 to 2013 was measured and analyzed,and the impact of ECFA on the cross-strait agricultural product trade cost was empirically analyzed.The results showed that the cross-strait agricultural product trade cost was generally on a declining trend,but the ECFA has not played a significant role in the cost reduction of the cross-strait agricultural product trade.The impact of capital cost,exchange rate,labor cost,per capital GDP on the trade cost was significant,while there was no significant impact of geographical distance on it.It was suggested that the cross-strait economic and trade cooperation should be further deepened based on political mutual trust,and the ECFA terms should be further perfected to expand the number of agricultural products in the ECFA early-harvest list,thus to ensure the steady economic development and stable exchange rate.

关 键 词：Novy模型 贸易成本 ECFA 农产品 海峡两岸 

分 类 号：F302.6[经济管理—产业经济] F323.7