消费趋势考量下中国经济发展新常态的实证检验  

Empirical Test on the New Normality of China's Economic Development under Consumption Trend

作　　者：张晓波[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市委党校,重庆400041

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第15期116-119,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划博士项目阶段性成果(2015BS076)

摘　　要：文章通过构建一个消费支出与关键影响因子之间的多变量Var模型,基于大跨度时间的视角,观察和研究中国消费支出的关键问题,进而从投资转向消费这样一个经济发展的逻辑着眼于认识和理解中国经济发展新常态。实证结果显示,人口抚养比在影响消费支出的因子中影响效应最大。我国消费的关键问题更多还是由我国经济自身的经济特征和特定制度决定的。This paper constructs a multivariable VAR model between consumption expenditure and key influencing factors to observe and study the key issues of China＇s consumption expenditure based on the perspective of long-span time. And then transferring from investment to consumption, the logic of economic development, the paper focuses on the cognition and understanding of the new normality of China＇ s economic development. The empirical result shows that population dependency ratio has the biggest effect among the factors of influencing consumption expenditure. China＇ s key consumption issues are subjected to China＇ s own economic characteristics and the specific system.

关 键 词：消费趋势 驱动因素 新常态 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]