2015～2100年中国人口与老龄化变动趋势  

Future Trends of China's Population and Aging: 2015～2100

作　　者：翟振武[1] 陈佳鞠[2] 李龙[2] Zhoi Zhenwu Chen Jiaju Li Long

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、北京社会建设研究院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,100872

出　　处：《人口研究》2017年第4期60-71,共12页Population Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“老龄社会的人口学基础研究”(项目号:71490731)的资助

摘　　要：全面两孩政策的实施将对未来中国人口与老龄化变动趋势产生深远的影响,文章在充分考虑生育政策调整影响的基础上,依托2015年1%人口抽样调查数据对中国2015~2100年的人口规模和结构的变动趋势进行预测分析。结果显示:中国总人口规模将于2029年左右迎来峰值,此后将步入负增长时期,整个人口的年龄结构将不断老化;劳动年龄人口规模将处于持续缩减之中,劳动年龄人口比例在21世纪前半叶将快速下降、后半叶则将在波动中缓慢下降;老年人口规模将不断攀升,于2053年左右达到峰值,此后将开始逐年下降,老龄化程度在21世纪前半叶将快速提升,但到了21世纪后半叶,老龄化进程将逐渐放缓。The implementation of the universal Nvo-chitd policy will have a profound influence on China＇s future trends of population end changing path of aging. Using data from the 1% population sampling survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2,015, this paper conducts simulations of the size and structure of Chino＇s population over the years 2015 -2100 by taking into account the potential demographic impacts of the fertility policy adjustment. The results show that China＇s total population will grow to the peak in around 2029 and then enter the era of negative population growth; China＇s population structure will be aging with shrinking working-age population size and expanding elderly population size; the speed of the decline in China＇s proportion of working-age population will be fast before 2050 and slow with fluctuations after 2050; China＇s size of elderly population will peak in around 2053 and then gradually begin declining; China will experience a rapid increase in proportion of elderly population before 2050 and the pace of population aging will slow down after 20.50.

关 键 词：生育政策调整 未来人口变动趋势 老龄化 劳动年龄人口 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]