基于省级面板门限模型的公共投资经济增长效应探析  

An Analysis of Public Investment Economic Growth Effect Based on Provincial Panel Threshold Model

作　　者：吴楠[1] 杨飞虎[1] WU Nan YANG Fei-hu(School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang Jiangxi 330013)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《价格月刊》2017年第8期78-83,共6页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"促进中国经济长期持续均衡增长的公共投资问题研究"(编号:12AJL006)

摘　　要：运用省级面板门限模型研究了2003年~2014年我国公共投资与经济增长的关系,发现公共投资与经济增长之间存在非线性双重门限效应。在人均公共投资存量低于第一门限值1.834万元/人时,公共投资的增加对经济增长呈抑制作用,当人均公共投资存量跨越第一门限值1.834万元/人且不足第二门限值4.261万元/人时,公共投资的增加对经济增长呈显著的正向促进作用;当公共投资存量跨越第二门限值4.261万元/人后,公共投资的增加对经济增长虽然呈显著的正向促进作用,但效应明显降低。根据研究结论,提出了优化公共投资结构、合理高效加快城镇化进程、加大科技教育投入、积极推进市场化进程等政策建议。This paper uses provincial panel threshold model to study the relationship between public investment and eco- nomic growth of China from 2003 to 2014, and finds out that there exists nonlinear dual threshold effect. When average public investment storage is lower than the first threshold value of 1.834 ten thousand yuan/person, the increase in public investment has inhibition effect on economic growth; when average public investment storage is interval between 1.834 and 4.261 （secondary threshold value）, the increase in public investment has significantly positive promotion effect in economic growth; when the average public investment storage is higher than 4.261, the increase in public investment still has positive promotion effect in economic growth, but the effect is significantly reduced. According to the research conclusion, this paper puts forward policy suggestions to optimize public investment structure, accelerate urbanization process reasonably and effectively, enlarge input in science and education and actively improve the marketization process.

关 键 词：公共投资 经济增长 面板门限模型 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]