日本旅华市场时空结构演变  

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Japanese Visiting-China Market

作　　者：席宇斌[1] 王力峰[2] XI Yubin WANG Lifeng(School of Hospitality, Shanghai Business College, Shanghai 200235, China School of Tourism, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China)

机构地区：[1]上海商学院酒店管理学院,上海200235 [2]桂林理工大学旅游学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《热带地理》2017年第4期580-590,共11页Tropical Geography

基　　金：上海高校青年教师培养资助计划(ZZsxy1400);上海商学院旅游管理特色学科建设

摘　　要：基于1979―2015年相关旅游统计资料,利用经济周期波动、季节性强度指数、变异系数和城市首位度等方法,对日本旅华市场的时间结构和空间结构演变进行分析。结果表明:1)自1979年以来,日本旅华市场快速发展,但年际市场增长率的稳定性和持续性受到一定限制;2)1994―2015年,日本旅华市场年内淡旺季具有一定的规律,市场曲线波动由"三峰型"逐渐向"双峰型"转变,但近年来季节性差异较不明显;3)日本旅华市场在华省域空间分布集中在东部沿海地区,多年变化亦不显著,主要包括长三角、珠三角和环渤海等区域;4)上海是日本旅华市场最热衷的旅游目的地城市,此外受双边经贸、旅游产品和政策导向等因素影响,北京、深圳和大连等城市也备受日本游客青睐。Japan plays an important role in China＇s inbound tourism market, and it means that the study on Japanese visiting-China market is quite necessary. On the basis of reviewing the spatial-temporal evolution of international tourist market, with the 1979-2015 statistics of inbound tourism published by Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, China Tourism Yearbook and China Tourism Statistical Yearbook, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial structure evolution of Japan visiting-China market by adopting research methods such as business fluctuation theory, seasonal intensity indexes, coefficient of variation and primacy ratio. The research results are as follows： 1） Under the influence of the factors such as Japanese economy, Japanese outbound tourism market and public events between China and Japan, Japan visiting-China market has developed rapidly since 1997. The average annual growth rate reaches 9.17%. The temporal structure evolution of Japan visiting-China market can be divided into ten cycles. The economic cycle fluctuation is in accordance with characters of Kitchin cycle. However, there are still some limitations to the stability and sustainability of its annual market growth rate. Twists and turns are obvious; 2） During the period from 1994 to 2015, there was a certain law to the dull and boom periods of Japan visiting-China market. March, May, and the months from July to November were boom period. April, June and December were shoulder seasons. And January and February were dull period. But the differences between dull and boom periods were lessened. It could also be found that the fluctuation of market curve changed from trimodal to bimodal in dull and boom seasons of Japan visiting-China market. However, as the market demand is relatively uniform, the seasonal difference is not so obvious in recent years; 3） Being affected by traffic, trade, cultural communication, product placement and so on, the tourists from Japan center around eastern coastal areas of China for m

关 键 词：旅华市场 时空结构 入境旅游 日本 

分 类 号：F592.3[经济管理—旅游管理]