货币政策、利率市场化与产成品库存——基于供给侧结构性改革视角  

Monetary Policy,Interest Rate Liberalization and Product Inventory—— A Perspective of Supply Side Structural Reform

作　　者：陈晓珊[1] 匡贺武 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学产业经济研究院 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2017年第4期137-144,共8页Reform of Economic System

摘　　要："供给侧结构性改革"现已成为适应和引领经济新常态的必然要求,其中,去库存作为改革进程中短期内的首要任务,需要结合宏观经济政策加以有效落实。据此,本文选取2012年1月~2015年12月中国39个工业行业平衡面板数据构建PVAR模型,实证研究货币政策与利率市场化对工业行业产成品库存的影响。脉冲响应和方差分解结果发现:货币政策在短期内对产成品库存有显著的负冲击,对其预测方差误差的影响较大;利率市场化在短期内对产成品库存有显著的正冲击,对其预测方差误差的影响较小;两种政策在长期内对产成品库存的正交化冲击响应逐渐收敛。The supply side structural reform has become the necessary requirement of adapting and leading the new normal economy and the product inventory as the top priority in the short term during the reform process, requires a combination of macroeconomic policies to implement effectively. Accordingly, Taking China＇s 39 industrial sectors＇ balanced panel data from January 2012 to December 2015, constructing panel VAR model, this paper studies how monetary policy and interest rate liberalization ＇affect the finished product inventory empirically. Impulse of response function and variance decomposition results show that： in the short term, monetary policy has a significantly negative impact on product inventory, and has a big effect on its forecast error variance; market interest rate has a significantly positive effect on product inventory, and has a small effect on its forecast error variance ; in the long run, one orthogonalized shock of two kinds of policies on inventory shock gradually converge. This study is a beneficial supplement to the research field of supply side structural reform in theory and it also offers a certain practical significance to promote the Chinese supply side structural reform in practice.

关 键 词：货币政策 利率市场化 产成品库存 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]