低地平原-水稻耕作系统水稻单产时空变化及收敛性分析  

The analysis of temporal and spatial distribution changes and convergence of rice yield in lowland rice farming system

作　　者：李晓云[1] 刘念[1] 曾琳琳[1] 黄玛兰 LI Xiao-yun LIU Nian Zeng Lin-lin Huang Ma-lan(College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei 430070, Chin)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2017年第4期640-648,共9页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71673102);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(2662016PY060)~~

摘　　要：低地平原-水稻耕作系统是我国重要的水稻生产系统,该系统水稻生产能力影响区域粮食安全和农村经济发展。本文运用探测性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)和空间收敛方法对1980-2014年低地平原-水稻耕作系统400多个县域水稻单产进行分析,用描述性统计方法和莫兰(Moran)统计值考察该系统县域水稻单产的时空分布和空间自相关,对该系统县域水稻单产做空间绝对β收敛检验,对H-H和L-L空间自相关区域进行空间俱乐部收敛检验。研究表明,1980-2014年系统整体水稻单产水平提升较大且存在显著的空间正相关,县域水稻单产空间分布存在距离衰减效应。县域水稻单产存在空间绝对β收敛和空间俱乐部趋同现象,相比于H-H自相关区域,L-L自相关区域水稻单产收敛于一个较低的水平,且两个区域水稻单产收敛速度均大于整个区域平均速度。因此,在水稻单产H-H集聚区,应扩大水稻单产优势区影响半径,提升周边地区水稻单产水平,尽可能缩小H-H和L-L两个区域水稻单产的组内和组间差距,提升区域水稻生产整体能力。Lowland rice farming system is an important rice producing practice in China,and rice production in this system influences regional grain output and economic development.Based on the rice yield data of 400 counties in the lowland rice farming system from 1980 to 2014 and applying the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis（ESDA） and the Spatial Convergence method,this study analyzed the rice yield changes：examining the temporal and spatial distribution and spatial autocorrelation of county rice yields by the Descriptive and Moran Statistical methods,conducting spatial absolute β convergence test for the rice yield in this system,and conducting the spatial autocorrelation convergence test for H-H and L-L regions.Results show that the general rice yield in the system has been increasing steadily and also showed positive spatial correlation in the system from 1980 to 2014 and the spatial distance impacts on regional yields have been declining.In addition,regional yields displayed absolute β convergence to a relatively low level compared to H-H and L-L regions,and the rates of convergence of rice yields in these two regions were higher than that of the whole system.Therefore,in the H-H concentration region,measures to expand the influence radius of the core high-yield area can help increase rice yields in the surrounding areas.Minimizing the intra-and inter-yield gaps between H-H and L-L regions can enhance rice production capacity of the whole system.

关 键 词：水稻单产 空间自相关 空间收敛 低地平原-水稻耕作系统 

分 类 号：F304.5[经济管理—产业经济]