我国粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的驱动因素分解  

Driving factor decomposition of fertilizer application growth in China's main grain producing areas

作　　者：王珊珊[1] 张广胜[2] 李秋丹[3] 李颖[1] WANG Shan-shan ZHANG Guang-sheng LI Qiu-dan LI Ying(College of Economics and Management, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai＇an, Shandong 271018, China College of Business, Liaoning University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110036, China College of Economics and Management, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866, China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271018 [2]辽宁大学商学院,辽宁沈阳110036 [3]沈阳农业大学经济管理学院,辽宁沈阳110866

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2017年第4期658-665,共8页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71303162;71503148);中国博士后科学基金项目(2016M590647)~~

摘　　要：分析粮食主产区化肥施用量变动特征及其驱动因素,有助于在确保粮食等主要农产品有效供给的基础上实现化肥减量目标。基于13个粮食主产省份2005-2015年的数据,采用因素分解法对粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的驱动因素进行了分解。结果表明,化肥施用强度提高是粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的主因,其次是播种面积增加,种植结构调整的贡献较小。但2010年以来,化肥施用强度提高的贡献在下降,种植结构调整的贡献在上升。分作物看,粮食作物施用强度提高和播种面积增加是粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的主要驱动因素,其次是园艺作物施用强度提高和播种面积增加,传统经济作物的化肥施用量增长很少。分区域看,北方主产区化肥施用量增长的主要驱动因素是施用强度提高,其次是播种面积增加;南方主产区播种面积增加和施用强度提高的累计贡献量大致相当。由此提出,促进粮食主产区化肥减量的重点是提高化肥利用效率,同时积极推广节肥型品种,促进园艺作物有机肥替代化肥。The analysis of the changing characteristics and the driving factors of fertilizer application in main grain producing areas can help reduce fertilizer application while maintaining effective supply of grains and other principal agricultural products.Based on the survey data from 13 main grain producing provinces in China from 2005-2015 and applying the factor decomposition method,this paper analyzed the driving forces of fertilizer application growth in China.Results indicate that the increase of fertilizer application intensity is the main contributor to the overall growth of fertilizer application,followed by the expansion of planted area.The contribution of planting structure adjustment is not significant.Since 2010,however,the contribution of the growth of fertilizer application intensity has decreased,while that of planting structure adjustment has increased.According to various categories of crops,grain crop growth of fertilizer application intensity and the expansion of the planted area are the main contributors,while that of horticultural crops ranks the second,and that of traditional economic crops increases little.In addition,geographical differences also have different impacts.For the northern grain producing areas,the main contributor is the increase of fertilizer application intensity,followed by the expansion of planted area.For the southern grain producing areas,the contributions of the expansion of the planted area and the increase of fertilizer application intensity are roughly equal.To reduce the quantity of fertilizer application in the main grain producing areas,the Government＇s efforts should focus on enhancing the application efficiency of fertilizer,promoting fertilizer saving breeds,and substitute chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers for horticultural crops.

关 键 词：粮食主产区 化肥施用量 驱动因素 因素分解 化肥施用强度 种植结构调整 

分 类 号：F307[经济管理—产业经济]