产业结构变动对城市经济承载力增长的贡献——以辽宁省14个城市为例  

Contribution of Industrial Structure Change to Urban Economic Carrying Capacity Growth: A Case Study of Fourteen Cities of Liaoning Province

作　　者：韩帅帅[1,2,3] 狄乾斌[3] Han Shuaishuai Di Qianbin(The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development of Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200062 [3]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2017年第4期37-42,48,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41571127);辽宁省高等学校优秀科技人才支持计划(WR2014005)

摘　　要：以辽宁省14个城市为例,在利用非线性模糊综合评价法和三轴图分别测度城市经济承载力和产业结构变动规律的基础上,从相关性和贡献度两个层次探讨产业结构变动对经济承载力增长的贡献。研究结果表明:首先,1985—2014年辽宁省14个城市经济承载力整体呈现倒"U"型变化,产业结构以第二产业为主,呈现"J"型结构。其中,1985—2003年大部分城市第三产业比重上升并占据首位,产业结构优化程度加强,经济承载力稳步提升;2003—2014年第二产业比重回升,产业结构水平下滑,城市经济承载力增速放缓甚至下降。其次,辽宁14个城市的产业结构变动与城市经济承载力表现出了较强的相关性,在此基础上进行的贡献度分析表明产业结构的变动对城市经济承载力有直接且明显的贡献作用,其中第三产业贡献度最高。Taking fourteen cities of Liaoning Province as examples, based on the regulation of city economy car- rying capacity and change of industrial structure measured by nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and three axis map respectively, the paper explored the contribution of the industrial structure change to economic carry- ing capacity growth from the relevance and contribution of two levels. Firstly, the whole inverted ＂U＂ type changes during 1985-2014 in fourteen cities of Liaoning Province economy carrying capacity, industrial structure is mainly to the second industry, presenting ＂J＂ type structure. Among them, the proportion of the third industry in most city dur- ing 1985-2003 is up and occupy the first place, the industrial structure optimization and strengthen the degree, steady improvement in economic carrying capacity; during 2003-2014, the proportion of the second industry rise, decline in the level of the industrial structure, growth slows down or even declining city＇ s economy carrying capacity. Secondly, fourteen cities of Liaoning Province industrial structure change and the urban economy carrying capacity showed a strong correlation, contribution analyzing showed that the change of industrial structure has a direct and ob- vious impact on the city＇ s economic carrying capacity, the third of industry contributes the highest.

关 键 词：产业结构 经济承载力 相关性 贡献度 辽宁省 

分 类 号：K909[历史地理—人文地理学]