长江经济带十大城市群内部城市间产业联系对经济产出影响研究——基于行业间投入产出引力模型方法  

A Study on the Impact of Inter-city Industrial Linkages on Economic Output Among Ten Megalopolises of Yangtze River Economic Belt:Based on the Inter Industryinput-output Gravity Model

作　　者：吴培培[1] 朱小川[2] 王伟[3] WU Peipei ZHU Xiaochuan WANG Wei

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [2]上海师范大学旅游学院,上海200234 [3]中央财经大学政府管理学院,北京100081

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2017年第7期49-55,共7页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2016EJL003)长江经济带城市网络的内生增长机制与经验研究

摘　　要：长江经济带区域协同增长的关键在于明确沿江城市群内部城市间产业联系对其经济产出的影响。城市群内部城市间的产业联系会加强其间的知识溢出并分享超额利润,从而影响城市群的经济产出。分析城市群内部城市间产业联系对经济产出的影响机制,构建理论模型。针对传统引力模型的不足,采用行业间投入产出引力模型(IIG模型)估算了2001-2015年间长江经济带沿线城市群的产业联系,通过产业联系修正人力资本的有效性。采用非参数协方差矩阵估计方法验证了理论模型。分析结果表明,以传统引力模型估算产业联系时,无法验证产业联系对经济产出影响的正面作用,而使用IIG模型估算产业联系时则能验证,即验证了理论模型,也说明了IIG模型对引力模型改进的意义。The key of the regional economic growth in the Yangtze River economic belt is to make clear the impact of the inter-city industrial linkages on the economic output. The inter-eity industrial linkages among Megalopolis will strengthen the knowledge spillover and share the excess profits, thus affecting the economic output. In this paper, we analyze the mechanism of the impact of inter-city industrial linkages on economic output, and build a theoretical model. Aiming at the shortage of the traditional gravity model, we use the inter-industry input-output gravity model（ IIG model） to estimate industrial linkage among Megalopolis of Yangtze River Economic Belt between 2001 -2015, and improve the effectiveness of human capital through industry linkage. Then, the nonparametric eovariance matrix estimation method is used to verify the theoretical model. The results show that the positive effects of industrial linkages on economic output can not be verified by the estimation of industrial linkages in the traditional gravity model, while, by the IIG model. That is, the theoretical model is effective, and the significance of the IIG model to the gravity model is also explained.

关 键 词：长江经济带 城市群 产业联系 行业间投入产出引力模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F292