辽东山区1960-2015年降水极值特征  

Extreme precipitation characteristics in eastern Liaoning mountainous region from 1960 to 2015

作　　者：李秀芬[1,2] 王平华 刘江[1] 金磊[1] 肇同斌 孙英杰[1] 彭峰[1] 潘宇弘 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学农学院,沈阳110866 [2]中国科学院清原森林生态系统观测研究站,沈阳110016 [3]朝阳县气象局,朝阳122000 [4]辽宁省气象局,沈阳110001

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2017年第8期2160-2168,共9页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31200432);辽宁省教育厅一般项目(L2014258)资助

摘　　要：基于辽东山区11个气象站1960—2015年逐日降水资料,选取日最大降水量为指标,采用EOF分解、SYM8小波分析、最优概率分布模型拟合等方法,研究了辽东山区56年来降水极值的时空变化特征,计算了不同重现期的降水极值。结果表明:该地区降水极值空间分布主要表现为全区一致分布型、南北和中部相反分布型、山脉中部和两侧相反分布型,各空间型的时间系数年际震荡较大;全区域降水极值在1983年之前缓慢减少,其后趋于稳定,存在明显的11年和20年左右周期变化;南北部和中部降水极值的差值变化存在先减小后增大的趋势,表现为11年和17年左右的震荡周期;山脉中部和两侧降水极值的差值在1984年之前趋于稳定,其后缓慢减少,以10年左右变化周期最明显;11个气象站中,6个站的降水极值用对数正态分布拟合最佳,3个站的降水极值用Pearson-Ⅲ型分布拟合最佳,其他2个站分别用Gumble和Weibull分布拟合最佳;不同重现期的辽东山区降水理论极值各地差异较大,表现为南部极值普遍高于北部。In this paper, the daily precipitation data from 11 representative metrological stations in eastern Liaoning mountainous region during 1960-2015 were used to extract the maximum daily precipitation as the index. The spatialtemporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation in eastern Liaoning mountainous region during the past 56 years were analyzed, and the precipitation extremes in different reappearance periods were calculated by using EOF, SYM8 wavelet analysis, and optimal probability distribution model fitting methods. The results showed that （1） There were three extreme precipitation patterns in the studied region： the consistent pattern in all of the subregions, the pattern with consistency in the north and south but opposite in the middle, and the opposite pattern in the middle and both sides of mountains. The interannual oscillations of time coefficients for the three patterns were larger. （2） The extreme precipitation decreased slowly in the studied region before 1983, and then approached a stable value, showing obvious cycles of about 11 years and 20 years. The extreme precipitation difference between the southnorth area and the middle area decreased first and then increased, with oscillation cycles of about 11 years and 17 years. The difference between the middle and both sides of mountains approached a stable value before 1984, and then decreased slowly, with a most significant change cycle of 10 years. （3） From 11 representative meteorological stations, the fitting results with PearsonⅢ distribution was the best for 6 stations, lognormal distribution for 3 stations, and Gumbel distribution and Weibull distribution for the other 2 stations. （4） For various given reappearance periods, the theoretical extreme precipitation values of eastern Liaoning mountainous region had relatively large regional differences and they were generally higher in south than in north.

关 键 词：辽东山区 降水极值 时空特征 概率分布 重现期 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]