中国地方财政的风险研判与应对  

The Study of Local Financial Risks and Countermeasures in China

作　　者：刘楠楠[1] 侯臣[1] 钟秋波[2] Liu Nannan Hou Chen Zhong Qiubo(School of Public Finance and Taxation, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics School of Public Finance and Taxation, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Journal of Social Sciences, Sichuan Normal University. Chengdu 611130)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财税学院 [2]四川师范大学社科学报杂志社,编辑成都611130

出　　处：《中国行政管理》2017年第8期25-29,共5页Chinese Public Administration

摘　　要：地方债与土地财政已内生化于经济增长,但在地方财政赤字压力下长期缺位于预算法的有效监管而引致财政-金融风险,使现行地方政府投资驱动型增长模式不可持续。本文分析了地方财政赤字、土地财政、地方债三者之间在实践中形成的逻辑循环,以及该逻辑的风险预判与应对。分析表明,土地财政存在不确定性影响,其与地方债的相互依存,带来短期内政府公共支出增加和经济增长,但长期内会因预算软约束与土地财政的不可持续引发财政风险,并可能传导至金融系统与实体经济中,导致金融风险与实体经济风险。因此,本文提出应从明晰地方政府的应有职能着手,合理设置地方税制体系,构建中期预算框架实现预算硬约束,是释放地方财政隐含风险的合理选择。Local debt and land finance have been endogenous in economic growth. However, they are lose in the effective supervision and may cause financial risk under the pressure of local fiscal deficit, which makes the current local government investment-driven growth model unsustainable. This paper analyzes the logical cycle among local deficit, land finance and local debt, and the risk pre-judgment and response of the logic. The analysis shows that the land finance has uncertainty influence, and its interdependence with local debt brings about the increase of government public expenditure and economic growth in the short term, but it will cause a financial risk in the long run due to soft budget constraint and unsustainable land finance, and may transmit it to financial system and real economy, leading to financial risk and real economic risk. Therefore, this paper puts forward that we should set up the local tax system rationally by clarifying the proper functions of local government and construct the medium-term budget framework to realize the hard budget constraint, which are the reasonable choices of releasing the implied risk of local finance.

关 键 词：地方财政 地方债 土地财政 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]