三元悖论的“折中化”、多重汇率弹性与汇率灵活性——基于金融加速器效应的TVAR模型检验  

The Middle Ground Phenomena of Trilemma Policy the Elasticity and Flexibility of RMB Exchange Rate——Based on TVAR Analysis on Financial Accelerator Effect

作　　者：骆祚炎[1] 赵迪[1] Luo Zuoyan1 Zhao Di2

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2017年第7期1-16,共16页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"金融加速器效应顺周期性的多维测度与逆周期调控政策研究"(71473049)和"基于消费视角的居民资产财富效应测度与调控政策研究"(71073030)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：本文基于三元悖论"折中化"理论的视角,论证我国汇率灵活性的制度设计。根据近年来兴起的三元悖论的"折中化"理论,稳定的汇率、货币政策独立性和资本自由流动三个目标之间相互靠拢,传统"三元悖论"三个目标之间的相容性增强。本文从三个方面对三元悖论的"折中化"理论进行了论证。在此基础上,利用金融加速器效应模型,将汇率灵活性问题放在经济周期分析框架中,分别检验在三种汇率弹性条件下金融加速效应的差异。TVAR模型分析结果支持三元悖论的"折中化"理论。这表明,三元悖论的"折中化"理论适用于我国的现实情况,维持汇率的阶段性稳定不会削弱货币政策的独立性;人民币在固定汇率制度和完全浮动汇率制度之间可以找到一个阶段性的平衡点,不必在短期内实施完全浮动汇率制度;当前在汇率弹性增强有限的条件下,对资本流动进行一定管制是有必要的,管制的主要目的是为了引导资本的有序流动,特别是引导资本的有序流出。This paper analysis the flexibility of RMB exchange rate from the perspective of the middle ground phenom- ena of tlilemma policy（short for MDP）. MDP shows that the three objectives such as the stability of exchange rate and the independence of monetary policy and capital flow are approaching each other compared with the traditional trilem- ma frame. This paper explains the mechanism of MDP. The TVAR model in terms of f＇mancial accelerator effect shows that, under the conditions of three kinds of elasticity of RMB exchange rate, there is obvious difference among three kinds of financial accelerator effect. The empirical analysis is in accordance with the theory of MDP. These analyses mean that we should adopt the frame of MDP, and the stability of RMB exchange rate will not weaken the indepen- dence of China＇s monetary policy; there exists a equilibrium point between the fixed exchange regime and floating ex- change regime of RMB; meanwhile we should appropriately control the capital flow in order to guide the reasonable capital flow especially like capital outflow.

关 键 词：三元悖论 三元悖论的“折中化” 金融加速器 TVAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]