经济周期协同性、全球经济失衡调整与东亚贸易模式转变  

The Coordination of Economic Cycle, Adjustment of Global Imbalance and Change of Trade Pattern in East Asia——The Investigation Based on DCC-MARCH Model

作　　者：张坤[1] Zhang Kun

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2017年第7期17-29,共13页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"全球经济失衡的调整机制及其对中国经济的影响研究"(17CGJ028)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：亚洲金融危机的发生对东亚区域生产网络和贸易模式产生了冲击影响,使得中国成为东亚地区的出口平台,形成了新的贸易模式。这一以垂直专业化分工为基础的东亚贸易模式,推动了全球经济失衡的愈演愈烈,特别是中国与美国之间形成了巨额的贸易与金融失衡。2008年发生的全球金融危机使得全球经济失衡出现调整。本文运用DCC-MARCH模型,考察了世界主要经济体经济周期、全球经济失衡及以三角贸易为核心的东亚贸易模式之间的静态和动态协同性变化。结论显示,东亚区域内的生产网络使得区域内主要经济体之间经济周期协同性显著大于区域外经济体,全球金融危机的发生推动了东亚贸易模式的转变,但这一转变短期内看仍是区域内的调整即中国和东盟在区域内分工地位的转换,由此推动了全球经济失衡的调整,且这一调整仍在持续。The impact of the Asian financial crisis on East Asian regional production networks and trade patterns have making China as the export platform in East Asia, then forming a new trade pattern. The East Asian trade pattern based on vertical specialization promotes the Global Imbalance, especially the huge trade and financial imbalance be- tween China and the United states. The Global financial crisis in 2008 has had an impact on the development of the Global Imbalances. In order to investigate the impact of the Global Imbalance adjustment and the global financial cri- sis, this paper use the DCC-MARCH model, for investigating the static and dynamic coordination among the econom- ic cycle of the world major economies, Global Imbalances and the triangle trade pattern of East Asia. Thus we can con- clude that, East Asian regional production network makes the synergy between intra-regional economies was signifi- cantly greater than that outside economy, the global financial crisis promotes the transformation of East Asian trade pattern, but the change in the short term is still within the region, thus promoting the adjustment of Global Imbalance, and this adjustment continues.

关 键 词：全球经济失衡 东亚贸易模式 经济周期 DCC-btGARCH模型 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F742[经济管理—世界经济]