不同生育政策下黑龙江省人口结构及发展趋势研究  

Population Structure and Development Trend of Heilongjiang Province under Different Fertility Policy

作　　者：陈淑君[1] 王一江[2] 刘春梅[3] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学财政与公共管理学院,哈尔滨150025 [2]哈尔滨师范大学历史文化学院,哈尔滨150025 [3]哈尔滨商业大学基础科学学院,哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第3期28-37,共10页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition

基　　金：黑龙江省社会科学基金项目(16RKD01)

摘　　要：改革开放以来,黑龙江省的人口增长完成了由高出生、低死亡、高增长阶段,向低出生、低死亡、低增长阶段的过渡,并长期停留在低出生、低死亡、低增长阶段。运用Leslie模型黑龙江人口结构发展趋势进行预测,并进行对比研究。研究结果表明,"全面两孩""全面放开"政策的实施,有助于改善人口结构、延缓黑龙江人口老龄化的发展进程,降低老年抚养比。Since the reform and opening- up, the population growth in Heilongjiang Province has been completed from high birth,low death, high growth stage, transition to low birth, low death and low growth stage, and long stay in low birth,low death and low growth stage. The natural popu- lation growth rate is always lower than the national average, the aging of population development faster than the national average. The age structure of the working population tends to be aging, and the working - age population is gradually declining. Women of childbearing age, the number of women in fertility is also reduced. Using the Leslie model to predict the development trend of population structure in Heilongjiang Province, the au- thor makes a comparative study on the development trend of the population structure of Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the implementa- tion of the policy of ＂universal two - child policy＂ and ＂ comprehensive liberalization＂ will help to improve the population structure, delay the process of population aging in Heilon^iiang Province and reduce the old - aze denendencv ratio.

关 键 词：人口结构 人口预测 少儿人口系数 老年人口系数 劳动人口数量 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F127