东北老工业基地人口变动、人口红利与经济增长——基于面板数据的实证分析  

Population Changes,Demographic Dividend and Economic Growth of the Northeastern Old Industrial Base——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Northeast Old Industrial Base of China

作　　者：王晓玲[1,2] 陈浩[2] 方杏村 

机构地区：[1]湖北师范大学经济与管理学院,湖北黄石435002 [2]中南财经政法大学经济学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第3期118-128,共11页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2015BZ0302);湖北省教育厅人文社会科学青年项目(16Q162);湖北师范大学资源枯竭型城市转型与发展研究中心2016年度开放基金资助项目(Kf2016y10)

摘　　要：利用2004-2014年东北老工业基地地级城市面板数据建立计量模型,实证分析人口变动、人口红利对经济增长的影响及其区域差异。结果显示:东北老工业基地通过储蓄在一定程度上达到了资本积累的目的,还存在一定程度的人口红利,其中辽宁优势明显、吉林一般,黑龙江最少。在人口数量变动中,人口出生率与经济增长有显著的负相关性,人口密度与经济增长有显著的正相关。在人口结构变动中,人口年龄结构与经济增长呈"倒U"型特点;人口性别结构与经济增长有显著的负相关;人口产业结构、人口文化结构对经济增长均有显著的正向作用;存在明显的区域差异。This paper establishes a model with the panel datas of 1998 - 2011 of the northeastern old industrial base, and empirically analyses popu- lation changes, demographic dividend and its regional differences in economic growth. The results showed that： the northeast old industrial base has achieved the goal of capital accumulation by saving. There is a certain demographic dividend in the northeastern old industrial base, which has obvi- ous advantages in Liaoning,Jilin general, Heilongjiang at least. There is a significant negative correlation between population birth rate and economic growth, but there is a significant positive correlation between population density and economic growth. The age structure of population and economic growth presents a kind of ＂ inverted U＂ type. There is a significant negative correlation between population sex structure and economic growth. Pop- ulation industrial structure and population cultural structure has significant positive effect on economic growth, and there are obvious regional differ- ences.

关 键 词：东北老工业基地 人口变动 人口红利 经济增长 区域差异 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] K901.3[历史地理—人文地理学]