基于改进无偏灰色马尔科夫模型的煤矿事故死亡人数预测  

Prediction of Death Toll in Coal Mine Accidents Based on Improved Unbiased Grey Markov Model

作　　者：栗婧[1] 宋天宝[1] 王亚然[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2017年第8期318-320,共3页Coal Technology

摘　　要：在传统灰色模型和马尔科夫理论的基础上,根据新信息优先原理,构建维新无偏灰色马尔科夫模型。以我国2003年~2011年煤矿事故死亡人数为基础,预测2012年~2016年煤矿事故死亡人数,并与传统模型预测结果进行对比分析。In order to predict the death toll of coal mine accidents in China, mastering the safety production status of coal industry in China. Based on the traditional grey model and Markov theory.According to the new information priority principle, equal dimension and new information unbiased grey Markov model was established. The number of deaths coal mine accidents from 2003 to 2011 was taken as original data to establish model forecasting deaths from 2012 to 2016. And compared with the traditional model prediction results.

关 键 词：煤矿事故 死亡人数 无偏灰色模型 马尔科夫理论 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]