洪水避难分析系统的研究开发及其应用  

Development and application of flood disaster evacuation analysis system

作　　者：丁志雄[1,2] 李娜[1,2] 王静[1,2] 曹大岭[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《水利学报》2017年第7期808-815,共8页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(1261430110037);中国水利水电科学研究院重点专项(JZ0145B042017)

摘　　要：随着经济社会快速发展,洪水高风险区中人口资产密度增大,受全球气候变化影响,台风、极端暴雨等形成的洪水灾害给高风险区的人员资产带来更大的威胁。危机时刻,如何更为有效、有序地组织灾区民众的避难转移是减少伤亡和损失的重要手段。本文从水文水力学、灾害学与地理信息科学等交叉视角,利用二维洪水仿真模型进行洪水演进模拟分析,对需避难转移人员及其空间分布特征进行识别;提出安置区的选择规划及优化匹配方法;建立最优转移路径分析模型及道路拥堵计算模型;在GIS平台上集成相关模型方法,开发洪水避难分析系统。在荆江分洪区进行了实例应用研究,建立了荆江分洪区的洪水模拟分析模型,用1954年分洪的实况洪水进行分洪区的洪水演进模拟分析,根据分析结果将分洪区划分为危险重灾区、深水重灾区和进洪轻灾区3个危险区域,利用荆江分洪区2014年分洪预案进行1954年实况分洪情景下的避难转移模拟分析,提出了基于洪水演进特征的分批次转移的改进优化方案。应用实例研究表明,本文建立的模型方法和相关系统具有较好的实用价值,可以为分蓄洪区等区域洪水避难方案的制定提供分析优化手段。With the rapid development of social economy,the increasing density of residents and assets in the flood prone areas has enlarged the risk of flooding. In the context of global warming,extreme stormsand typhoons bring greater threats to the residents and assets in flood prone areas. How to organize the residents to evacuate more effectively and orderly is an important means to reduce the casualties and damages.Taking a multi-disciplinary approach including hydrology,hydraulics,disaster prevention and geographic information science,the flood risk is analyzed based on flood simulation to identify the population and itsspatial distribution in the flooded areas. The optimal matching method is developed for planning placementshelters. In addition,the optimal evacuation routes analysis model and traffic congestion analysis model isdeveloped. These models are integrated on a GIS based platform to create a comprehensive simulation sys-tem which can perform flood evacuation analysis and real-time simulation. The Jingjiang flood diversion area is taken as a pilot study to develop a flood scenario simulation model and the real flood event of 1954 is used to simulate the process of flood diversion in this area. According the result of flood simulation,there are three hazard areas in Jingjiang flood diversion area,i.e. dangerous hard disaster area,deep waterhard disaster area and flood light disaster area. The flood diversion scenario of 1954 is used to simulateand analyze the disaster evacuation based on the 2014 emergency response plan of Jingjiang flood diversionarea. An optimized program of evacuation in batches is proposed base on the characters of simulated floodrouting. The result shows that the models,methods and related system are useful,which can provide a solution for analyzing and optimizing the evacuation plan in flood diversion area.

关 键 词：洪水模拟 避难分析 荆江分洪区 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]