价格之谜——深度透视油品零售市场价格战背后的供需失衡及深层次矛盾  

The Riddle Of The Price——The Imbalance Of Supply And Demand And The Underlying Contradictions In The Price War Of The Oil Retail Market

作　　者：李月清 

出　　处：《中国石油企业》2017年第7期46-61,2,共16页China Petroleum Enterprise

摘　　要：作为基础性大宗商品,成品油巨幅波动不是一个简单的价格涨跌问题,而是一个关系经济社会全局性问题。成品油价格与居民消费价格指数(CPI)和生产资料价格指数关系密切,在CPI构成中,交通、通信类消费价格占据9.95%权重,而交通消费价格又与成品油消费关系密切。在工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)构成中,作为生产资料市场价格指数构成大类的成品油价格无论涨跌,都会深度影响CPI和PPI指数走势,加重人们对油价下跌带来的通货紧缩预期,而通货紧缩会抑制投资与生产,加剧经济疲软。长期来看,油价下跌不仅会传导下游产业,还会造成能源过度耗费,抑制清洁能源发展。激烈的价格战背后折射出当前成品油市场供需失衡现状,以及掩盖在下游产业市场化背后的深层矛盾。As a basic commodity, the volatility of refined oil products is not a simple price fluctuation problem, but an overall problem of economic and social relations. Refined oil price and the consumer price index(CPI) is closely related to price indices of means of production, in the CPI composition, traffic, communications, consumer prices 9.95% weighting, and traffic consumer prices close to oil consumption. In the producer price index(PPI) constitute, as a means of production market price index, which constitute the major categories of product oil price regardless of the rise and fall, depth will affect the CPI and PPI index, increase deflation expected people bring to the fall in oil prices, and deflation will discourage investment and production, increase economic weakness. In the long run, falling oil prices will not only lead to downstream industries, but will also lead to excessive energy consumption and curb the development of clean energy. The fierce price war reflects the current situation of supply and demand imbalance in the oil market, as well as the deep contradictions behind the downstream industry's marketization.

关 键 词：油品零售市场 价格战 深层次矛盾 供需失衡 深度透视 省份 油价 

分 类 号：F724.741[经济管理—产业经济]