海岬型干散货海运价格研究——与新造船价格波动周期的互谱分析  

Research on shipping price of Capesize dry bulk market——Analysis of Mutual Spectrum with the Volatility Cycle of New Shipbuilding Price

作　　者：陈继红[1,2,3] 杨晨[1,2,3] 郑爱兵[1,2,3] 许君仪 李浩博[1,2,3] 赵娅[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院 [2]西安外事学院商学院 [3]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第5期155-158,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51409157);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(14YJC630008);上海市浦江人才项目(17PJC053);上海市科委研究项目(15590501700)

摘　　要：海岬型海运市场是国际干散货市场中船型最大、最具代表性的市场之一,受到世界经济贸易环境等各种因素的影响,具有高波动性和周期性特征。本文运用互谱分析的理论方法,选择海岬型海运运价指数、海岬型船舶新造船价格以及海岬型船舶成交量等数据,建立其海运和造船两种市场价格周期的互谱分析模型,确定这两类价格周期波动相关程度及相位差,分析两个市场相互波动关联的周期性特征。研究结果表明:海岬型海运和造船等两种市场价格波动周期的相互影响。海岬型新造船价格和运价序列在45个月时的相干性最强;新船成交量序列和运价序列在周期分量36个月和10个月时存在较强的相干性。The Capesize shipping market is one of the largest and most representative markets in the international dry bulk market, which has high volatility and cyclical characteristics because of the influence form world economic, trade environment and other factors. This paper select the shipping freight index of Capesize market, new shipbuilding prices of Capesize ship, transaction volume of Capesize ship and other data, and establish a model of mutual-spectrum analysis between two kinds of market price cycles of shipping and shipbuilding by using a method of mutual-spectrum analysis theory. In order to determine the degree of correlation and phase difference between these two types of price cycle and analyze the cyclical characteristics of the interdependence of the two markets. Research results indicate that market price fluctuation cycle of Capesize shipping and shipbuilding affect each other. The sequence of Capesize new shipbuilding prices and sea prices have the strongest coherence at 45th month, and the sequence of new shipbuilding volume and sea prices have the strongest coherence at the cycle component of 36th month and lOth month.

关 键 词：海岬型干散货 海运价格 造船价格 互谱分析 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济]