存在事实上的人民币货币区吗——基于东亚及14个主要新兴市场国家的实证考察  

Is There A De Facto RMB Currency Bloc?——An Empirical Investigation Based on East Asia and 14 Major Emerging Market Countries

作　　者：周阳[1] Zhou Yang(Business School, University of Jinan, Jinan, Shandong, 25000)

机构地区：[1]济南大学商学院,山东济南250002

出　　处：《经济学家》2017年第9期36-43,共8页Economist

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目"汇率弹性增强背景下我国货币政策的有效性及其提升策略研究"(17BJY196);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"更富弹性的汇率制度下我国最优货币政策选择研究"(16YJC790154);山东省社会科学规划研究项目"基于货币错配约束的人民币汇率市场化问题研究"(14CJJJ11)

摘　　要：是否存在事实上的人民币货币区在现有的研究中广受关注。本文对传统的推断货币篮子权重的方法进行了扩展,使用一个新的分析框架全面考察了这一问题。结果显示,美元在人民币货币篮子中的权重仍然较高,但我国具有显著弹性的汇率制度安排为人民币成为国际货币提供了条件;对于东亚而言,美元的影响已经弱化,人民币逐步替代日元成为东亚区域内的主要参考货币,而且人民币开始被纳入主要新兴市场国家的货币篮子,甚至在一些国家的货币篮子中人民币已成为最主要的锚货币,这意味着事实上的人民币货币区开始显现。进一步地分析发现,紧密的贸易关系对人民币货币区的形成具有重要意义。Whether or not there is a de facto RMB currency bloc has received considerable attention in existing studies. This paper extends the traditional method of inferring currency basket weight, and uses a new framework to investigate this problem. The results indicate that the dollar＇s weight in RMB currency basket remains high, however, China＇s flexible exchange rate regime provides the condition for RMB＇ s internationalization; For East Asia, the dollar＇s impact has weakened, RMB gradually replaced the yen and has become the major reference currency in the region. Moreover, RMB began to be included in the currency basket of major emerging market countries, and it has even become the most important anchor currency in some countries＇ currency basket. This indicates that the de facto RMB currency bloc is beginning to emerge. Further Analysis finds that close trade relation is important to the formation of RMB currency bloc.

关 键 词：货币篮子 汇率制度弹性 人民币货币区 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]