可持续生计视角下中国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价研究  

Vulnerability of herder households under the framework of sustainable livelihoods in the grassland of Northern China

作　　者：丁文强[1,2] 李平[2] 尹燕亭[2] 侯向阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,兰州大学草地农业科技学院,甘肃兰州730020 [2]中国农业科学院草原研究所,农业部草地生态与修复重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《草业学报》2017年第8期1-11,共11页Acta Prataculturae Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2014CB138806);科技部国际合作项目(2013DFR30760);国家自然科学基金项目(71403272);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2014BS0709)资助

摘　　要：本研究基于可持续生计框架,运用Delphi专家咨询法构建了包含5个目标层指标和15个指标层指标的中国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价指标体系,测算中国北方草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原、沙地草原、草原化荒漠、山地草原6大草原类型15个旗县727户牧户生计资本状况,探讨牧户及区域尺度牧户脆弱性分异特征。研究表明,1)两轮专家咨询的专家意见协调系数分别为0.445和0.692,经卡方检验P<0.01,可见该评价指标体系科学可信;2)中国北方草原区牧户生计资本存量低,牧户家庭脆弱性指数均值为0.2990,脆弱性高;3)依据牧户脆弱性指数的大小,运用K-means Cluster方法进行样本聚类,根据聚类结果可将牧户脆弱性分为高低两类,聚类分析结果通过方差检验,F值极显著;4)高脆弱性牧户的人力资本、自然资本、物质资本、金融资本和社会资本五大类生计资本存量显著低于低脆弱性牧户;5)区域尺度牧户脆弱性指数由高到低依次为山地草原>草原化荒漠>荒漠草原>沙地草原>草甸草原>典型草原,区域尺度牧户脆弱性自西向东依次减小明显地带性规律。We developed an evaluation system based on the Delphi method to assess the vulnerability of herder households under the framework of sustainable livelihoods in the grassland regions in northern China. The herder households’ livelihood capital conditions were measured in the meadow steppe, typical steppe, desert steppe, sandy steppe, and desert and mountain steppe regions of northern China. The characteristics of differ-entiation were also explored at household and regional scales. In the two rounds of expert opinion of the herd-ers, the coefficients of coordination were 0. 445 and 0. 692 （P〈0 . 01）. The livelihood capital of the herders in northern China was lower, indicating that these herders were vulnerable （mean vulnerability index, 0. 2990）.The herders were clustered into two groups by the K-means clustering method. The data were analyzed by an F-test and the F-value was significant, confirming that the herders could be divided into two groups on the ba-sis of their vulnerability index. The herders’ human capital,natural capital,physical capital,financial capital, and social capital stock were significantly lower in the more vulnerable group than in the less vulnerable group. On the whole, the householders？ vulnerability tended to decrease from west to east at the county or regional scales. The regions were ranked, from most vulnerable herder households to least vulnerable, as follows： mountain steppe〉steppe desert〉desert steppe〉sandy steppe〉meadow steppe〉typical steppe.

关 键 词：可持续生计 北方草原区 牧户 脆弱性评价 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]