农民工回流意愿的影响因素与农民工分流机制的构建——基于二分类Logistic模型的实证分析  

The Factors Influencing Remigration Willingness and the Construction of Rural Migrant Workers' Diversion Mechanism: an Empirical Analysis Based on Binary Logistic Regression Model

作　　者：刘新争[1] 任太增[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南师范大学商学院

出　　处：《学术研究》2017年第7期95-102,共8页Academic Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目"我国进城农村劳动力生存状态的代际差异及其效率研究"(12YJC790126);教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目"不完全劳资契约的剩余分配问题研究"(12YJC790164)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：农民工自东向西的回流具有显著的结构效应,它既能倒逼推动我国产业结构的升级优化,也有利于区域间的协调发展,但盲目强调劳动力回流容易加剧东部地区的"民工荒",也容易导致东部地区陷入"产业空心化"的困境。因此,构建农民工区域就业、创业分流机制对实现农民工回流的结构效应至关重要。针对农民工回流影响因素的二分类Logistic回归结果表明:就业方面,东部地区应把20岁以下和40岁以上的农民工作为农民工就业制度的需求主体,通过增强其身份认同感、改善其居住环境、增强其就业培训、加大其社保力度、提高其技能水平、强化其工作权益等举措,巩固其留守意愿;中西部地区应着重针对20—40岁农民工的行为特征,通过强化其与家乡的联系、建立合理的工资增长机制、提高其比较收益等措施,吸引其回流。创业方面,东部地区的政策着力点应放在为农民工提供创业咨询和指导上,中西部地区则需提供包括咨询、指导、培训、资金等全方位的创业支持,同时要注意政策的连续性和继起性,做好政策与政策之间的衔接,并把农民工返乡创业与本地城镇发展相结合,推动产城互融。Remigration of migrant workers has significant structural effects in an economic society. It can not only promote the upgrading and optimization of China's industrial structure, but also facilitate the coordinated development among regions. But if we overemphasize the remigration from eastern region, it would intensify labor shortage of the east and get it into a dilemma of Industry Hollowing. Therefore, it is important to construct regional diversion mechanism of migrant workers, which is helpful to realize remigration's structural effect. In this paper, we use binary logistic regression model to analyze the influencing factors of migrant workers' remigration willingness. Analysis results show three points as follows.(1) Migrant workers under 20 and over 40 should be regarded as the main demand labors of eastern region's employment system. The government should strengthen migrant workers' stay willingness to work by many measures, including enhancing their sense of identity, improving their living environment, strengthening their professional training, intensifying their social security, improving their skills, and strengthening their work rights and so on.(2) The mid west should focus on the characteristics of the 20-40 year old migrant workers to remigrate, by strengthening their ties with home, establish a reasonable wage growth mechanism, and improve their comparative income and other measures.(3) For migrant workers who want to start business, the eastern region's policy should be focused on the entrepreneurship consulting and guidance, but the mid west should provide more comprehensive support including consultation, guidance, training and funding.

关 键 词：农民工 回流意愿 分流机制 政策导向 

分 类 号：F241.3[经济管理—劳动经济]