2017年上半年中国大豆市场形势分析和下半年走势预测  

China's Soybean Market Situation in First Half of 2017 and Its Forecast in the Second Half of the Year

作　　者：张振[1] 张璟[1] 殷瑞锋[2] 徐雪高[3] 

机构地区：[1]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810 [2]农业部信息中心,北京100125 [3]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《农业展望》2017年第7期4-9,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：马克思主义理论研究和建设工程2015年重大项目(2015MZD036);农业部软科学项目(D201735);农业部项目"大豆市场监测预警"

摘　　要：在经历了进口大豆的巨大冲击后,2017年上半年中国大豆播种面积和产量止跌回升,国产大豆价格稳中略涨,国际大豆价格进入下跌通道,国内外价差持续扩大,大豆进口量同比增加。预计2017年下半年,受国内大豆种植面积增加、临储拍卖预期及进口大豆影响,国产大豆价格易跌难涨,国际大豆价格受气候、油价等因素影响也上涨乏力。同时,国产大豆生产仍需关注恶劣天气影响,农田基础设施建设需进一步加强,大豆加工环节需要加强品牌建设,转基因大豆流向仍是政府监管的重点,米豆轮作、大豆生产者补贴等政策亟需完善。After the huge impact of imported soybean, in the first half of 2017, the planting area and output of domestic soybean recovered to increase. The price of domestic soybean remained stable and slightly went up.However, the price of imported soybean fell down, so the price gap between domestic and foreign soybean expanded continuously and soybean importation increased compared to the same period of last year. In the second half of 2017, the domestic soybean price may go down because of the increase of soybean planting area,the expected auction of storage and the effects of imported soybean, meanwhile the international soybean price may also hardly increase due to the factors such as climate, oil prices and so on. At the same time, the domestic soybean production still needs to pay attention to bad weather, infrastructure in farmland needs to be strengthened, soybean processing segment needs to enhance the construction of brand, GM-soybean needs to be better supervised by the government, and the policies like Rice-Bean Crop Rotation, Soybean Producer Subsidy need to be modified.

关 键 词：大豆 生产 价格 进口 预测 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]