基于可信性理论和效用理论的电网连锁故障综合风险评估方法  

Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method of Cascading Failures in Power Grid Based on Credibility Theory and Utility Theory

作　　者：陈晶 刘明群 覃日升 陈振[3] 李周龙 王家华 CHEN Jing LIU Mingqun QIN Risheng CHEN Zhen LI Zhoulong WANG Jiahua(Yunnan Electric Power Test ＆ Research Institute, Kunming 650217, China Yunnan Electric Power Research Institute, Kunming 650217, China School of Electrical Engineering and Information, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China Yunnan Lincang Power Supply Company, Lincang 677000, China)

机构地区：[1]云南电力试验研究院(集团)有限公司,昆明650217 [2]云南电力科学研究院,昆明650217 [3]四川大学电气信息学院,成都610065 [4]云南临沧供电局,临沧677000

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2017年第7期144-150,共7页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：提出一种基于可信性理论和效用理论的电网连锁故障综合风险评估方法。以保护装置引起的隐性故障为连锁故障诱导因素,基于保护误动的模糊不确定性建立隐性故障的模糊模型。研究连锁故障发生可能性和严重程度的量化方法,利用可信性理论计算得到电网发生连锁故障的可信性测度,并借鉴效用理论的思想,通过构建非线性效用函数,从失负荷、线路过载和电压越限3个方面量化故障后系统状态偏移的严重程度,并通过模糊赋权法和熵权法相结合的组合权重综合法,较好地解决了隐性故障引起的电网连锁故障综合风险评估问题。将所提方法应用于我国西南某地区电网,仿真分析证明了方法的有效性和可行性。A comprehensive risk assessment method is proposed for the cascading failures in power grid based on credibility theory and utility theory. The hidden failures resulting from protective relays are considered as the inducing factors of cascading failures, and a fuzzy model of hidden failures is established based on the fuzzy uncertainty of protection mal-operation. In order to quantify the possibility and the severity of cascading failures, the credibility measure of the cascading failures of power grid is calculated using credibility theory. In addition, utility theory is adopted, and nonlinear utility functions are constructed to quantify the severity of the deviation of system states after failures from aspects including load loss, overload of lines and out-of-limit voltage. Finally, fuzzy weighting method and entropy weighting method are combined to form a comprehensive synthetic weighting method to solve the comprehensive risk assessment problem of cascading failures in power grid due to hidden failures. The proposed method is applied to a regional power grid in the southwest of China, and simulation results prove its effectiveness and feasibility.

关 键 词：隐性故障 可信性理论 效用理论 组合权重 综合风险 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]