我国汇率政策对货币政策有效性影响的实证研究——基于1997—2015年数据  

Empirical Study on the Effect of China's Exchange Rate Policy on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy——Based on Data from the Years of 1997 to 2015

作　　者：凌兰兰[1] 陶士贵[1] LING Lanlan TAO Shigui(School of Business, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing , Jiangsu 210023 , China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学商学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《征信》2017年第6期72-80,共9页Credit Reference

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(13BJY171)

摘　　要：基于"三元悖论"的视角,将样本区间划分为汇改前后两个阶段的子样本,并运用SVAR模型对不同的汇率制度下汇率与货币政策自主性及其有效性之间的关系进行实证分析。结果显示,汇率制度弹性越大,我国货币政策有效性更加突出。2005年汇改后,汇率政策不仅显著地影响货币政策,而且还通过货币政策自身来间接促进产出的增长。基于此,未来的政策走向应当是适度扩大人民币汇率波动区间,以免影响货币政策效果的发挥;人民币汇率制度改革的方向应当是放弃中间汇率制度,并最终走向完全浮动汇率制度。Based on the ＂Tri-lemma＂ perspective, dividing the sample into sub-samples at two stages before and after the exchange rate retbrm, by using SVAR model, the paper conducts an empirical analysis on the relationship between the autonomy of exchange rate and monetary policy and the effectiveness in the context of different exchange rate systems. The results show that the greater the flexibility of exchange rate regime, the more prominent the effectiveness of China＇ s monetary policy is. After the exchange rate reform in 2005, the exchange rate policy not only significantly affected the monetary policy, but also indirectly promoted the growth of output through monetary policy. Thus, the future policy direction should be to appropriately expand the range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, so as not to affect the effect of monetary policy; the RMB exchange rate system reform should give up the middle exchange rate system, and finally fulfill the floating exchange rate system.

关 键 词：汇率弹性 货币政策 SVAR 中间汇率制 浮动汇率制 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学] F830.9