Structural Transformation under Trade Imbalances： The Case of the Postwar U.S.  

作　　者：Zongye Huang 

机构地区：[1]International School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China

出　　处：《Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities》2017年第2期228-267,共40页中国高等学校学术文摘·经济学（英文版）

摘　　要：A striking feature of the structural change literature is that, even though the U.S. economy is often used as a benchmark for calibration, the traditional mo- dels cannot account for the steep decline in manufacturing and rise in services in the U.S. since the late 1970s （Buera and Kaboski, 2009）. In order to solve this puzzle, this paper develops a three-sector model to evaluate various factors that could have contributed to the structural transformation process from 1950 to 2005. The results show that, in addition to traditional explanations, such as non-homothetic preference and sector-biased productivity progress, international trade is another major source of structural change and is able to explain about 35.5% of the overall employment share decrease in American manufacturing. The quantitative calibration estimates that the inter-sector trade makes a moderate contribution, while trade imbalances dominate the recent contraction of manufacturing employment share. Our results suggest that calibrated models based on U.S. data have to be adjusted by trade factors.A striking feature of the structural change literature is that, even though the U.S. economy is often used as a benchmark for calibration, the traditional mo- dels cannot account for the steep decline in manufacturing and rise in services in the U.S. since the late 1970s （Buera and Kaboski, 2009）. In order to solve this puzzle, this paper develops a three-sector model to evaluate various factors that could have contributed to the structural transformation process from 1950 to 2005. The results show that, in addition to traditional explanations, such as non-homothetic preference and sector-biased productivity progress, international trade is another major source of structural change and is able to explain about 35.5% of the overall employment share decrease in American manufacturing. The quantitative calibration estimates that the inter-sector trade makes a moderate contribution, while trade imbalances dominate the recent contraction of manufacturing employment share. Our results suggest that calibrated models based on U.S. data have to be adjusted by trade factors.

关 键 词：trade and structural change trade imbalance U.S. manufacture sector 

分 类 号：F014.1[经济管理—政治经济学] P642.14[天文地球—工程地质学]