基于疏散行为的震灾避难场所服务效率评价  

Evaluating method on service quality of seismic emergency shelters based on evacuation behaviors

作　　者：季珏[1] 高晓路[2] 徐匆匆[1] 许士翔[1] 汤飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]住房和城乡建设部城乡规划管理中心,北京100835 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2017年第8期965-973,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部科技计划项目(2016-R2-030)~~

摘　　要：科学评估避难场所的服务效率是提高城市应急水平的前提。传统对避难场所服务效率的评估多偏重于避难场所空间布局的合理性,缺少对避难者的空间布局和避难行为等避难需求的考虑,这会使评估结果造成偏差,从而容易引起资源配置的低效率。本文构建了多主体模拟模型,模拟避难者灾后对避难场所的选择、奔跑、安置等关键疏散行为过程,量化评估该地区避难场所服务效率。本文对比了两种量化评估指标在同一案例评估的差异性,一种是传统方法中空间可达性(服务半径覆盖率),一种是利用疏散行为模拟计算出的避难成功率;北京市海淀区的实证研究显示两项指标在同一案例区有巨大差异。这一分析结果显示,传统评估仅利用服务半径覆盖率这一指标来分析避难场所布局现状及规划的合理性存在不足。通过避难疏散行为的模拟发现,以下指标的使用有望辅助提高评估的真实性:(1)避难场所的利用效率。由于设施的利用效率不均衡,会导致避难场所超容或闲置的情况。在充分考虑避难场所的有效服务面积和服务人口的基础上,设计"人均避难面积"等反应利用效率的指标就显得十分必要。(2)避难标识系统的连通性。避难模拟的实验显示避难标识系统可能对避难者逃生疏散具有分流和引导作用,据此,避难场所与周边居民区的标识系统的连通性也是评价其服务效率的关键指标。Service quality of seismic emergency shelters is an important reference of seismic planning. Spatial coverage of seismic shelters has been used for evaluating service quality of seismic emergency shelters.However, population distribution and evacuation behaviors were rarely considered, which rendered the evaluation results inaccurate. Based on a multi-agent simulation model, this study examined earthquake evacuation behaviors, such as choice of destination, routing, and sheltering. Evacuation rate—the rate of evacuees who successfully arrived at seismic shelters to take refuge within a specific time period—was then calculated. Coverage rate of emergency shelters and evacuation rate of residents both were used to indicate the evacuation success rate. A case study was conducted in Haidian district. The evaluation result shows significant difference between the spatial coverage rate of seismic shelters and evacuation rate. It indicates that coverage of emergency shelters alone cannot fully evaluate emergency shelters. Coverage rate of seismic shelters together with use efficiency of emergency shelters and signs for evacuation routes that lead to quick and order evacuation are all crucial indicators for evaluating service quality of seismic shelters.

关 键 词：震灾避难场所 服务效率 疏散行为 空间可达性 多主体模拟 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]