大陆与台湾、港澳地区货币合作动态最优决策分析  

Dynamic Optimal Decision Analysis of Monetary Cooperation between China's Mainland and Taiwan,Hong Kong,Macao

作　　者：姜红艳[1] 苑西恒[2,3] JIANG Hong-yan YUAN Xi-heng(Business School, Belling Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences/China Oceanwide, Beijing 100005, China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [3]中国泛海控股集团有限公司,北京100005

出　　处：《商业研究》2017年第8期35-40,共6页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目;项目编号:15ZDC021

摘　　要：进入21世纪以来,大陆与台湾、内地与港澳的经济联系愈加紧密,但一国四币现状严重阻碍了四地经济的融合与发展。在最优货币区的内生性理论的基础上,本文通过卡尔曼滤波构建状态空间模型考察四地是否具备构建最优货币区的经济基础,发现内地与香港地区、澳门地区存在最优货币区的内生性作用机制,适宜构建最优货币区;台湾与大陆间不存在最优货币区的内生性作用机制,二者在当前阶段不适宜构建最优货币区。Since twenty-first Century, the economic ties between mainland and Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao have become closer. However, the current situation of one country＇s ＂four currencies＂ has seriously hindered the integration and development of the four regions. Based on the theory of optimal currency area, a state space model is used to investigate whether the four places in China have the economic base to construct optimal currency area, finding that there is a mechanism for endogenous effect of optimal currency area between China's Mainland and Hong Kong area, Macao area, and they are suitable for construction of optimal currency area; there is no a mechanism for endogenous effect of optimal currency between Taiwan Region and China's Mainland and they are not suitable for construction of optimal currency area.

关 键 词：两岸四地 经济周期 经济冲击 最优货币区 内生性理论 

分 类 号：F821.6[经济管理—财政学]