城市客运交通节能减排潜力分析——以镇江市为例  

Analysis to the potential of energy-saving and emission-reduction of urban passenger transport:a case study of Zhenjiang City

作　　者：麦文隽[1] 邹乐乐[1] 王毅[2] 凤振华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所 [2]交通运输部交通科学研究院

出　　处：《城市问题》2017年第8期31-41,共11页Urban Problems

基　　金：交通运输部能力建设项目(2015-JNJP-008-054)--交通运输领域能源节约与用能方式变革研究

摘　　要：基于系统动力学的视角对城市客运交通网络进行建模,以镇江市为案例对城市客运交通能源消耗和碳排放进行了预测,通过情景设置分析评估了该市在城市客运交通方面的节能减排潜力。结果显示:镇江市的低碳交通规划政策在节能减排方面效果显著,到2030年时将累计产生153.23万吨标准煤的节能量以及322.46万吨的二氧化碳减排量。其中,私家车是城市客运交通能源消耗和碳减排的首要贡献者,从2011年开始,公交车作为更节能的优先出行方式,其在能源消耗和碳排放方面超过出租车,位居第二。最后,根据研究结果,从改善居民出行方式、提高新能源汽车比例、提高城市交通管理能效与客运水平等方面对镇江市城市交通节能减排提出了建议。This essay builds a model of urban passenger transport from the perspective of system dynamics to predict Zhenjiang＇s energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban passenger transport. Then, this essay makes assessment of Zhenjiang＇ s energy saving and emission reduction potential in urban passenger transport through scenario setting. The results show that Zhenjiang＇ s low - carbon transportation planning policy is of great significance in energy saving and emission reduction. By 2030, it will save energy by 1 million 530 thousand tons of standard coal and reduce carbon emissions by 3 million 224 thousand tons. Thereinto, private cars are the main contributors in energy consumption and carbon emission, followed by buses and taxis. In the end, this essay also provides some suggestions for Zhenjiang government to achieve its low - carbon transportation planning policy in energy -saving and emission reduction.

关 键 词：系统动力学模型 城市客运交通 情景分析 能源消费 碳排放 

分 类 号：X734[环境科学与工程—环境工程]