我国西南地区CPI变动与GDP增速相关分析  

The Correlation of the CPI Change with the GDP Growth in Southwest China

作　　者：詹孟于 ZHAN Meng-yu(College of Tourism and Economic Management, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106, Sichuan Province, China)

机构地区：[1]成都大学旅游与经济管理学院,四川成都610106

出　　处：《沈阳农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第1期12-17,共6页Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：经济增长与通货膨胀是宏观经济学长期研究的重要问题,两者之间的相关关系也是多年来学术界重点关注的热点问题。采用1985~2015年国家统计局西南地区四川省、贵州省、云南省与重庆市三省一市的GDP与CPI数据,利用简单线性回归模型研究二者之间的关系结果表明,在1985~2015年的31年间,西南地区GDP增速与全国GDP增速一直保持同向变动,年化复合增长率为15.76%;CPI增速与全国CPI增速保持较高的相关性,年化复合增长率为5.81%。从GDP增速与CPI指数变动的关系看出,虽然CPI指数变动与GDP增速在经济周期的波动中幅度上有所差别,但大趋势基本一致,二者的波动存在一定的相关性。线性回归分析结果表明,CPI指数变动对GDP增速的影响是正向的,每当CPI变动上涨1%,GDP会随之增长0.736%。经济增长能够引起通货膨胀率的增加,反之,通货膨胀在一定程度上也有助于经济增长。依据西南地区GDP与CPI的运行特点,从供求关系、通货膨胀和经济增长动力等因素进行分析,促进西南地区CPI与CDP增长相协调,应及时防范高通胀率,避免其对经济的不良影响;有效减小通货膨胀变动,避免其对实体经济的压力;适度控制通货膨胀,避免其对经济平稳的冲击。Economic growth and inflation are always an important issue worldwide. The GDP and CPI data of the provinces of Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan and Chongqing city in Southwest China in1985~2015 were used to study the correlation between GDP and CPI. Results show that in the 31 years between 1985 and 2015 the GDP growth in Southwest China and the national GDP growth have are in the same direction; the GDP＇s annual compound growth rate is 15.76% in Southwest China; and the CPI growth of this region has a great correlation with the national CPI growth and the CPI＇s annual compound growth rate is 5.81% in Southwest China. The relationship between the GDP growth and the CPI changes indicates that though slight difference exists between the CPI change and the GDP growth in economic cycle fluctuation they share the same trend basically and correlation exists between them in fluctuation. A linear regression analysis reveals that the CPI change has a positive influence on the GDP growth： 1% of the CPI increase will contribute to 0.736% of the GDP growth; and economic growth can cause an increase in the inflation rate, and in return inflation is conducive to economic growth to a certain degree. Based on the characteristics of GDP and CPI in Southwest China and the analysis of such factors as the supply-demand relationship, inflation and the power of economic growth it is suggested that high inflation should be prevented to promote the coordination between the CPI change and the GDP growth in Southwest China and avoid its harmful effect on local economy; changes caused by inflation try to be effectively reduced to avoid their pressures to the real economy; and inflation moderately controlled to avoid its impact on the economic stability.

关 键 词：西南地区 GDP增速 CPI指数 通货膨胀 经济周期 经济增长分析 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]