粮食进口对我国粮食价格波动影响的实证研究  

An Empirical Study of the Impact of Grain Import on Grain Price Fluctuation in China

作　　者：肖国安[1] 王琼[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院 [2]湖南科技大学商学院

出　　处：《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》2017年第4期117-123,共7页Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“粮食安全框架下的外国资本、资源和技术利用的战略研究”(11AZD006);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20124301110002)

摘　　要：运用2008—2015年我国粮食月度进口量和价格数据,借助协整检验、VEC模型和方差分解进行分析。粮食进口量与国内粮食价格之间存在长期均衡关系,但分品种看,大豆和大米的进口对国内价格波动有一定的影响,小麦和玉米的进口与国内价格之间不存在长期均衡关系。因此,选择适度进口规模、加大农业境外投资、调整粮食进口品种结构以及促进技术进步将成为未来通过粮食贸易稳定我国粮食价格的政策取向。The study analyzes, by means of VAR Model, Impulse Responses, and Variance Decomposition, the monthly import volume and price data of the four major grain crops of soybean,corn,wheat,and rice from 2008 to2015. It is found that import volume of grain is highly relevant to the domestic grain price. But the import volume of different grain crop exerts different impact on domestic price, with soybean and corn having greater impact and wheat and rice having less significant impact. Therefore,appropriate scale of imports and increased overseas agricultural investment,and adjustment of the structure of grain imports will be the policy orientation of stabilizing grain prices by grain trade in the future.

关 键 词：粮食进口 粮食价格 波动 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61