江苏省城市化与经济增长的脱钩研究  

Decoupling analysis between urbanization and economic growth in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：茅天颖 濮励杰[1,2] 许艳[1,2] 朱明[1,2] 蔡芳芳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210023 [2]国土资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,南京210023

出　　处：《资源科学》2017年第8期1560-1572,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41230751);江苏省"十三五"土地整治规划(2016-2020);江苏省博士后科研资助计划(1601067B)

摘　　要：现阶段城市化与经济的快速发展特征显著,研究两者之间的关系对于协调可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以江苏省为例,应用脱钩理论剖析1997-2015年城市化(人口城市化、土地城市化)与经济(GDP、非农GDP、第三产业GDP)发展间的动态变化关系,揭示其脱钩状态的时空差异。研究结果表明:(1)全省人口城市化水平较高,自南向北差异明显;土地城市化水平较稳提升,苏南地区发展快于苏中苏北地区;(2)2006年前人口城市化、2009年前土地城市化与GDP年度脱钩系数波动较大,呈强脱钩、弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩与扩张连接四种类型,人口城市化与GDP低水平协调发展区域主要位于苏南苏中地区,低水平城市化冒进区域主要位于苏北地区,土地城市化与GDP年度脱钩状态分布全省较为均衡;之后全省高达96.58%的数据稳定在弱脱钩区域,经济增长对城市化依赖程度正不断减弱;(3)1997-2015年、1997-2009年与2009-2015年时间段尺度下人口城市化、土地城市化与GDP脱钩状态较一致,总体波动不如年度数据剧烈,苏南地区全部为弱脱钩状态,苏中苏北大部分为弱脱钩状态,城市化与GDP脱钩效应较为均衡与理想;(4)城市化与GDP、非农GDP、第三产业GDP脱钩状态变化规律较为一致,城市化与第三产业GDP脱钩效应略弱于非农GDP。Rapid development of urbanization and economy has been significant characteristics in China. The relationship between urbanization and economic development is now an important scientific issue. Decoupling methods were used here to analyze the relationship among urbanization （population urbanization, land urbanization） and economic growth （GDP, nonagricultural industry GDP, tertiary industry GDP） in 13 cities in Jiangsu Province, China from 1997 to 2015. Regular pattern of dynamic change, and time and space differences in decoupling status and characteristics were researched. We found that the population urbanization development level was high and distribution difference. Land urbanization development was comparatively steady, and southern regions were ahead of other regions. The annual decoupling coefficient between population urbanization and GDP before 2006 and land urbanization and GDP before 2009 fluctuated greatly. Decoupling types contained strong decoupling, weak decoupling, expansion negative decoupling and expansion connection. The coordinated level between population urbanization and GDP in the southern and central regions was low; northern regions have low urbanization. The decoupling state of land urbanization and GDP were balanced distribution. Up to 96.58% of data were stable and in a weak decoupling state. The dependence of economic growth on population urbanization and land urbanization was diminishing. The decoupling of population urbanization, land urbanization and GDP were consistent from 1997 to 2009, 2009-2015 and 1997-2015, and the fluctuation was not as severe as for annual data. All southern regions and most other regions were in a weak decoupling area. The decoupling status among urbanization and GDP were balanced and ideal. The decoupling state changes of urbanization and GDP, non-agricultural industry GDP, and tertiary industry GDP were relatively consistent. The tertiary industry GDP decoupling effect was weaker than non-agricultural industry GDP.

关 键 词：人口城市化 土地城市化 经济增长 脱钩 江苏省 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F299.27