碳税对江苏省宏观经济与碳减排的影响——基于CGE模型的模拟分析  

Effect of Carbon Tax on Macro-Economy and Carbon Emission Reduction in Jiangsu Province:Simulation Analysis Based on CGE Model

作　　者：王锋[1] 陈进国[1] 刘娟[1] 林翔燕 陈赛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第9期31-36,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"多尺度空间视角下城市群的城镇化发展对碳排放的作用机理及其减排路径研究:以长三角为例"(71673270);国家自然科学基金项目"空间场视角下的中国能源基地可持续发展评价与优化"(71403268);教育部人文社会科学研究项目"区域低碳发展指数构建及其应用"(14YJCZH146);全国统计科学研究项目"时空效应视角下的区域低碳发展评价研究"(2014LZ26);全国统计科学研究项目"城市群城市低碳发展的空间差异与互动关系研究"(2015LY14)

摘　　要：征收碳税是发展低碳经济的有效手段。文章构建了经济、能源与二氧化碳排放9部门CGE模型,利用江苏省投入产出表编制了宏观和微观社会核算矩阵并开发了GAMS程序,模拟分析了碳税政策、不同碳税返还方式等情景对江苏宏观经济与碳排放的影响。结果表明:征收碳税将导致江苏实际GDP、社会福利下降,而名义GDP、居民收入、企业收入、政府收入上升;征收碳税将使得煤炭、石油和天然气等化石能源的消费量减少,而电力生产供应和消费增加;征收碳税明显降低了二氧化碳排放,排放强度随着碳税数额增加而下降;碳税抑制了高耗能行业发展,第三产业比重提高,产业结构优化;碳税返还给居民可以改善征收碳税的负面影响,弥补开征碳税造成的社会福利损失。The imposition of carbon tax is an effective way to develop a low carbon economy. This paper constructs the CGE model including economy, energy and carbon dioxide emission, using input-output table of Jiangsu Province to compile the macro and micro social accounting matrix of Jiangsu Province, developing the GAMS program to simulate the carbon tax policy and carbon tax return mode on the impact of macroeconomic and carbon emissions in Jiangsu. The results show that the actual carbon tax will increase the real GDP, social welfare and residents＇ consumption in Jiangsu Province and the nominal GDP. Household income, enterprise income, government revenue and total investment will be increased. With the carbon tax implemented, oil and natural gas and other fossil energy consumption will be decreased. While the power supply and consumption increased. Imposition of carbon tax significantly reduced carbon dioxide emissions carbon tax to reduce the proportion of the tertiary industry, the industrial structure can be optimized; that carbon tax returns to the residents can improve the collection of carbon tax, bring the carbon tax and reduce the amount of carbon tax of the negative impact, and make up for the introduction of carbon tax caused by social welfare losses.

关 键 词：碳税 二氧化碳排放 宏观经济 可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]