中国内地寨卡病毒病输入传播风险评估研究  

RISK ASSESSMENT OF ZIKA VIRUS DISEASE INVASION AND TRANSMISSION IN China's Mainland

作　　者：张文慧[1] 赵国平[1] 姚宏武[2] 樊正伟[1] 肖丹[1] 李新楼 方立群[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事医学科学院微生物流行病研究所,病原微生物生物安全国家重点实验室,北京100071 [2]中国人民解放军总医院,北京100089 [3]航天系统部疾病预防控制中心,北京100101

出　　处：《寄生虫与医学昆虫学报》2017年第2期91-102,共12页Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究团队项目(81621005);国家基础性工作专项重点项目(2013FY114600);国家科技重大/重点项目(AWS15J006)

摘　　要：2016年全球寨卡病毒病疫情暴发,使我国面临一定的输入传播风险。本研究基于2016年全球寨卡病毒病报告疫情数据、全球国际航班客流量数据和我国云南和广西边境口岸分布等数据,通过计算输入风险指数评估我国主要城市寨卡病毒病输入风险。应用生态位模型预测中国当前埃及伊蚊、白纹伊蚊的分布区域,结合内地主要城市寨卡病毒病输入风险指数、埃及伊蚊或白纹伊蚊的分布概率等数据,计算主要城市寨卡病毒病输入后继发本地传播风险指数,评估本地传播风险。研究表明北京、上海和广州经国际航班输入寨卡病毒病的风险高;云南省德宏州、临沧市和西双版纳州以及广西防城港市和北海市经陆运口岸输入的风险较高;需加强口岸检疫,及时发现病例。仅考虑埃及伊蚊在该病传播中发挥作用,海口、三亚和湛江存在寨卡病毒病本地传播风险。云南省德宏州、临沧市两地在3-11月份如发生陆运口岸输入寨卡病毒病,存在经埃及伊蚊引起本地传播的中等风险。这些城市需要加强人群和伊蚊的监测,以利于早发现疫情、及早采取防蚊灭蚊等防控措施。The imported and transmission risk of Zika virus （ZIKV） emerged in China,since the global epidemic of Zika in 2016.This work predicted the imported risk of Zika virus（ZIKV） in China's Mainland by assessing index of imported risk of ZIKV using reported autochthonous Zika cases in epidemic focus,airline-passenger flow information and location information of land transportation ports in Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces and the study predicted the probable distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae.albopictus in China's Mainland using cological niche models （ENMs）,based on the database of reported locations of Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus.Then we analyzed the autochthonous transmission risk of ZIKV in China's Mainland by calculating the autochthonous transmission risk index using the probability of distribution of Ae.aegypti or Ae.albopictus,imported risk index,population density and suitable temperature zones.Our study showed that Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou had high imported risk of ZIKV by international flights,and Dehong,Lincang and Xishuangbanna in Yunnan,Fangchenggang and Beihai in Guangxi had high imported risk of ZIKV through land transportation ports.So that Inspection and Quarantine Organizations should strengthen the border quarantine and detect Zika cases promptly.High risk of autochthonous transmission of ZIKV might occur in February and middle risk in November in Sanya,there was high risk in Haikou and middle risk in Zhanjiang in August.and there was middle risk in Dehong and Lincang and low risk in other border cities in Yunnan during March to November.Zika cases and surveillance of Aedes mosquitos should be reinforced monitoring,prevention and control measures should been taken rapidly once Zika patients are diagnosed.

关 键 词：寨卡病毒病 埃及伊蚊 白纹伊蚊 传播 风险评估 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学] R511[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]