基于目标值的土地警素指标的预警研究——以上海市土地类指标为例  

Research on the Early-Warning of Land Warning-Index based on the Desired Value: Take Shanghai's Land-Index as an Example

作　　者：瞿忠琼[1] 余逍 代兵[2,3] 范华[2,3] 石晓平 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]上海市地质调查研究院,上海200072 [3]上海市国土资源调查研究院,上海200072

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2017年第5期70-78,共9页China Land Science

基　　金：上海市地质调查研究院招标项目"土地运行体征指标构建及其决策咨询机制研究"(2015(D)-018(F));江苏省社会科学基金"城乡建设用地流转中可置换用地指标的预警体系研究"(14GLD004)及其配套项目"南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学研究基金"(SKPT2015001);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科研究基金"城乡建设用地增减挂钩的预警体系及风险防控研究"(SKCX2015007)

摘　　要：研究目的:探寻基于目标值的土地运行关键指标预警研究的方法,及时提出警戒信息与调控措施。研究方法:采用趋势预测法对警素指标的未来值进行预测,用年均增长率函数倒推法确定目标值倒推值,结合预测值与目标值倒推值确定2015—2020年弹性警界线,采用统计误差理论所得出3σ法则来确定警度界限的区间,采用景气信号灯法判别警情,黄色信号灯表示轻警、红色信号灯重警,采用情景分析法分析不同减量化目标下警情的变化趋势。研究结果:上海市建设用地总规模若按减量递增10%,则2018年后需要保持零增长,若减量递增30%,则增量还有一定上行空间;工业用地占比的预测值在未来5年内都处于红色预警,但警情有较为合理的自下降趋势。研究结论:建设用地应遵循"五量并举"的调控思路,努力实现规划建设用地"负增长"目标;而工业用地则通过加强分类引导,采取二次开发、复合利用等措施,优化用地结构,使工业用地占比回落到正常区间。单一警素指标预警适用于时间序列较长且有目标值的指标,未来的研究重点应在单项预警的基础上,构建以土地要素为核心的多要素安全综合预警体系。The target of this article was to find the methods of early-warning of some key elements of land system based on their desired values so as to provide the alert information and control measures timely. The research were as follows： 1）the trend projection forecasts were made for predicting future values of indexes; 2）the average annual growth rate functions were used for determining the backed-up values; 3）the forecast values combined with the backed-up values was used to determine the elastic alert line; 4）the principle of 3σnormal distribution based on the statistical error theory was used for determining the warning degree ranges; 5）the signal lights were used to judge the alert situations. For instance, the yellow means the light warning and the red means the heavy warning; 6）the scenario analysis method was used to analyze the change trend of early-warning under different reduction targets. The results showed that if the total reduction size of construction land in Shanghai increases by 10%, it will need to maintain zero growth after 2018. If the increase rate of reduction is 30%, the amount of newly-added construction will still have some chances to rise up. Although the forecast value of industrial land proportion was in the red light warning, but it continued declining and warning situation was alleviated. In conclusion, according to the regulation of ＆quot;five-quantity controled development＆quot;, we would fulfill the target of ＆quot;negative growth＆quot;. Meanwhile, the industrial land proportion will be back to normal range if we take some measures, such as industrial land clarified guidance, land redevelopment, compound land use, land use structure optimization and so on. The single warning-element is suitable for the indexes with long period target values. The future research should focus on establishing the multiple factors and comprehensive safety early-warning system with land factors as the core based on the single index early-warning.

关 键 词：土地评价 目标值 警素指标 预警研究 上海市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]