中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动风险预警研究  

A Study of the Early Warning of China's Capital Flow Risk in Kazakhstan

作　　者：刘文翠[1] 张帅[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《新疆财经大学学报》2017年第3期14-26,共13页Journal of Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：新疆社会科学基金项目"‘一带一路’背景下哈萨克斯坦国际资本流动风险预警研究"(项目编号:2015BJY019);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目"中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动风险预警研究"(项目编号:XJUFE2016K027)

摘　　要：本文通过构建资本流动风险可拓物元预警模型,分析了中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动风险现状及未来的警情。研究表明:哈萨克斯坦投资环境风险整体呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势。2002年—2009年间哈萨克斯坦投资环境风险基本保持在四级及以上;2010年—2013年间则基本维持在三级及以下,整体投资风险有所下降;2014年—2015年风险开始呈现回升的态势。预计未来五年,中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动风险等级基本维持在三级水平,风险水平保持中等,宏观经济环境风险水平有所降低,基础设施环境、自然资源环境、社会文化环境及政治法律环境风险水平则基本保持平稳。This paper analyzes the status quo of capital flows risk of China in Kazakhstan by constructing of capital flow risk extension early - warning model. The research shows that Kazakhstan s investment environment risk showed a tendency of drop first and then rise, the risk of investment environment in Kazakhstan remained at level four and above from the year 2002 to 2009, and maintained at level three and below from 2010 to 2013 ,and began to rebound from 2014 to 2015. It is expected that in the next five years Chinas risk level of capital flows in Kazakhstan will remain at level three, the macroeconomic environment risk level will be reduced, the facility environment, natural resources and environment, social cultural environment and the political and legal environment will remain stable.

关 键 词：哈萨克斯坦 资本流动 风险 预警 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F136.1