基于可靠度理论的滑塌式危岩体参数敏感性分析  

Parameter sensitivity analysis of unstable slump rock based on reliability theory

作　　者：李化云[1,2] 张硕[3] 刘银[4] 许芃[4] 

机构地区：[1]西华大学建筑与土木工程学院,四川成都610039 [2]西华大学绿色建筑与节能重点实验室,四川成都610039 [3]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059 [4]西南交通大学交通隧道工程教育部重点实验室,四川成都610031

出　　处：《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第4期1456-1464,共9页Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家青年科学基金资助项目(51608450);西华大学绿色建筑与节能重点实验室开放基金资助项目(szjj2015-075)

摘　　要：汶川灾区,由地震导致的地质灾害类别和数量非常多,其中危岩体失稳概率的判定为灾区重点工作。基于可靠度理论,根据滑动危岩体极限破坏呈现的特点,建立3种情况来确定可靠度函数,利用蒙特卡罗法计算和分析了3种情况下滑塌式危岩体可靠度随基本变量变化的趋势,同时对各基本变量的可靠度敏感性进行研究。研究结果表明:各基本变量敏感性从大至小顺序是危岩体的破裂角β、单位长度的重力ω、高度h、黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ。bbIn the disaster areas of Wenchuan, the instability probability of unstable rock is considered as the key to the disaster control because there are many categories and quantities of geologic hazards caused by the earthquake. Based on the reliability theory and according to the limit state of unstable slump rock,a reliability function was established under three conditions in this paper. The reliability change of unstable slump rock along with the basic rock parameters in the threeconditions was analyzed using Monte Carlo method,and the sensitivity of each parameter was studied. The results show that the sensitivities of the parameters,in descending order,are the angle of rupture,weight per unit length,height,cohesion and angle of equivalent internal friction.

关 键 词：滑塌式危岩体 蒙特卡罗法 可靠度 参数敏感性 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]