径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应——以渭河流域为例  

Quantifying impacts of climate variations and human activity on the runoff in Weihe River basin

作　　者：陈抒晨[1,2,3] 赵安周[4] 朱秀芳[1,2,3] 潘耀忠[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部遥感科学与工程研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [4]河北工程大学矿业与测绘工程学院,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第4期472-478,共7页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家高分辨率对地观测重大专项基金资助项目(民用部分);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20130003120041)

摘　　要：定量区分气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响,对区域水资源管理具有重要的现实意义.本文基于实测径流数据和前人重构的自然径流数据,借助趋势分析、突变检验、多元线性回归等方法,定量分析渭河流域气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响,并通过与水文敏感性系数方法的分析结果相比较,进一步验证结果.结果表明:1965—2012年华县站、张家山站和状头站的实测径流分别以7.99×10~8、2.86×10~8和0.787×10~8 m^3·(10a)^(-1)的趋势减小(α<0.05).气象要素中,渭河干流的风速和相对湿度呈显著减小的趋势,气温呈显著增加的趋势(α<0.05);泾河流域的相对湿度呈显著减小的趋势,潜在蒸散发和气温呈显著增加的趋势(α<0.05);北洛河流域各气象要素的变化趋势同泾河流域相似.突变检验表明华县站、张家山站和状头站的年实测径流分别在1993、1996和1994年前后发生了突变,其径流分别下降了38.81%、47.67%和42.22%.多元回归分析表明气候变化对华县站、张家山站和状头站径流变化的贡献率分别为49.30%、38.05%和69.86%.水文敏感性分析方法的结果同多元回归方法相似,气候变化对3个水文站径流变化的贡献率分别为48.61%、39.21%和64.86%.Quantifying the impact of climate changes and human activity on runoff has practical significance for regional water resource management. In this study, we used trend test, change point analysis, and multiple linear regression to analyze the impact of climate changes and human activities on runoff, based on measured runoff data and natural runoff data reconstructed previously by others. We further verified our results by comparing with hydrologic sensitivity analysis. Our results indicated that runoff decreased significantly from 1965--2012 at Huaxian, Zhangjiashan and Zhuangtou stations, with trends of 7.99X108 m3.（10 a） ^（aG 0.05）, 2.86X108 m3-（10 a） l（aG0.05）, and 0. 787 X108 m3-（10a） 1（aG0.05） respectively. Also, inWeihe River, a significant negative trend in wind speed and relative humidity was detected, whereas temperature showed a positive trend （a〈0. 05）. Relative humidity of Jinghe Basin was in significant negative trend, PET and temperature showed significant increase trend （a〈 0.05）. Variations of all meteorological factors in Beiluohe Basin were in the same trend as in Jinghe Basin. The runoff turning points were 1993, 1996 and 1994 at Huaxian Zhangjiashan and Zhuangtou gauging stations, respectively. After these turning points, runoff at all three gauging stations fell by 38.81%, 47.67%, and 42.22% respectively. Multiple regression analysis showed that at Huaxian, Zhangjiashan, and Zhuangtou stations, climate change made a contribution rate of 49.30%, 38.05%, 69.86% to runoff variation. Hydrologic sensitivity analysis was similar to multiple regression analysis. Contribution rates of climate change in runoff variation were 48.61%, 39.21%, and 64. 86%, respectively, at these 3 gauging stations.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 径流变化 渭河流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]