论公共政策终结过程中的风险识别——以“二胎”政策为例  

The Identification of the Progressive Risk in Policy Termination: A Case Study of the “Second Child” Policy

作　　者：曲纵翔[1] 汪明旭 

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学管理学院

出　　处：《社会发展研究》2017年第3期98-113,共16页Journal of Social Development

基　　金：中央民族大学2017年度中央高校基本科研业务费资助

摘　　要：风险社会背景下,公共政策的生命周期日益短暂,政策终结活动充满风险。根据终结行为过程的阶段,相应划分出实施前的合理性风险,实施中的利益冲突、成本、舆论风险,实施后的认同性、信任、外部性风险。据此,本文选取"二胎"政策的终结进行考察。该工作的渐进战略在有效防范政策评价风险基础上,对外部性、社会舆论等风险做到有效降低,并进一步降低了认同性、信任度等要素带来的风险。同时,双方的利益冲突在这些风险的化解中也得到有效消解。In risk society,the life cycle of public policy becomes shorter and shorter,and the termination of policies is full of risks.This paper is a research on the risks in the termination process of the'second child'policy.The progressive strategy of this work has effectively reduced the risk of externalities and public opinion on the basis of effectively preventing the risk of policy evaluation,and further reduced the risk of identity,trust and other factors.At the same time,the conflict of interest between the two sides of policy termination has also been effectively resolved in the resolution of the above-mentioned risks.

关 键 词：政策终结 风险 利益冲突 外部性 “二胎”政策 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]