装备维修合同商保障风险态势评估研究  

Research on Risk State Evaluation of Equipment Maintenance Contractor Support

作　　者：王双川 吕瑞强[2] 李德权[3] 王亚东[1] 

机构地区：[1]军械工程学院装备指挥与管理系 [2]空军勤务学院航空四站系 [3]94647部队

出　　处：《军械工程学院学报》2017年第3期19-25,共7页Journal of Ordnance Engineering College

摘　　要：引入系统工程中的集对分析理论,对装备维修合同商保障实施过程中存在的诸多风险进行评估和趋势判定.建立装备维修合同商保障风险评估指标体系,利用区间层次分析法(AHP)和三元联系数确定了各评估指标权重;构建了基于五元联系数集对分析的风险评估模型,由集对势结果评判装备维修合同商保障系统的风险态势,由各阶偏联系数分析系统风险的发展趋势,实现了风险评估过程的动静结合.最后,通过实例验证了方法的实用性和有效性.Aiming at the support, the theory of se trends. Firstly, on the b analysis hierarchy process risks existing in the process of equipment maintenance contractor t pair analysis in system engineering is applied to assess its risks and asis of establishing the risk assessment index system, the uncertain （AHP） and the three--element connection number are introduced to determine the weight of evaluation indicators. Secondly, the five-element connection number set pair analysis model is constructed to assess system risk, in which the set pair potential is calculated to judge the risk state of equipment maintenance contractor support system, and the risk development trend is analysed by utilizing the partial connection number, which realizes the combination of dynamic and static risk assessment. Finally, the practicability and effectiveness of the method are verified by an example.

关 键 词：多元联系数 集对分析 装备维修 合同商保障 风险评估 

分 类 号：E257[军事—军事理论]