中国经济增长动力分解:有偏技术进步与要素投入增长  

Decomposition of Economic Growth's Motive Force in China:Biased Technical Progress and Factor Input Growth

作　　者：封永刚[1] 蒋雨彤[1] 彭珏[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年第9期39-56,共18页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"中国农业偏向型技术进步及其生产率增长效应研究"(SWU1609236)的资助

摘　　要：研究目标:从有偏技术进步和要素投入增长视角分解中国经济增长动力。研究方法:基于标准化供给面系统方法对中国1978~2015年的要素增强型CES生产函数进行估计,并扩展Solow增长核算方程重构中国经济增长动力分解框架。研究发现:国内研究在技术进步偏向识别、生产函数参数设定及估计方法应用方面存在部分偏误;修正偏误后本文发现考察期内有偏技术进步对于中国经济增长的动力支持总体强于要素投入增长,且有偏技术进步和要素投入增长内部发生了明显的动力转换;中国经济增速近期下滑主要由资本增强型技术进步减缓、资本累积速度下降和人口红利消失引致。研究创新:基于多种要素替代关系、市场假设和技术进步率框架,对中国要素替代弹性、有偏技术进步进行全面再评估,通过打开技术进步率的"黑箱"进一步分解中国经济增长动力。研究价值:为有偏技术进步识别和经济增长动力分解提供可靠框架。Research Objectives： Decomposing economic growth＇s motive force in China from the perspec- tive of biased technical progress and factor input growth. Research Methods： This paper estimates China＇s factor-augmenting CES production function from 1978 to 2015 by using the normalized sup- ply-side system, and then we reconstruct the decomposition framework of China＇s economic growth by expanding Solow growth equation. Research Findings： There are some errors in the identifica- tion and estimation of production function, and identification of biased technical progress in domes- tic researches. After correcting those errors, we find that biased technical progress＇s support for China＇s economic growth is stronger during the inspection period, and there is a clear motive force conversion process in biased technical progress and factor input growth. The recent decline in China＇s economic growth is mainly caused by the slowdown in capital-augmenting technical pro- gress, the decline in speed of capital accumulation and the disappearance of demographic dividends. Reseaw.h Innovations： Based on varieties of initial values of elasticity of substitution, market as- sumptions and frameworks of technical progress, we conduct a reassessment of China＇s elasticity of substitution and biased technical progress, then we decompose the China＇s economic growth＇s motive force by opening the ＂black box＂ of technical progress rate. Research Value： Providing a relia- ble framework for the identification of biased technical progress and decomposition of economic growth.

关 键 词：经济增长 动力分解 技术进步 要素投入 供给侧 

分 类 号：F221[经济管理—国民经济]