基于Weibull函数分布的电力通信网光缆失效率模型  

Failure rate model for optical fiber cable in electric power communication network based on Weibull distribution function

作　　者：郭思嘉[1] 赵振东[1] 张倩宜[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学(保定)电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003 [2]国网天津市电力公司信息通信公司,天津300010

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2017年第17期92-99,共8页Power System Protection and Control

摘　　要：为了解决电力通信网可靠性评估过程中光缆可靠性的量化和计算问题,在现有的三参数Weibull分布函数的基础上,结合光缆现行的国家与电力行业标准和主流生产厂家的光缆特性指标,提出了光缆失效的3个影响参数——形变参数、结构参数以及时间参数,并建立了适用于分析电力通信光缆失效率的概率分布模型。针对现有数据的局限性,采用将传统的黄金分割迭代算法与一种能够近似拟合的最大似然估计法相结合的方法对参数的取值进行计算和估计。该模型较好地反映了不同的因素对光缆可靠性的影响程度,实例分析验证了该模型具有一定的实用性。During the process of reliability evaluation in electric power communication network, the main problem lies in quantization and calculation of the reliability of optical fiber cables. In order to solve the problem, a probabilistic distribution model is established in this paper, which is applicable to failure rate analysis of optical fiber cables in electric power communication network, based on existing three-parameter Weibull distribution. By consulting the relevant National and Electric Power Industry Standards and the characteristic indexes given by the main cable manufacturers, three new influence parameters are proposed as deformation parameter, structure parameter and time parameter. Limitations of existing data can be improved by using an algorithm that consulting traditional golden section method and an approximate method for parameters fitting of maximum likelihood estimation, then value ranges of these parameters are calculated. This model can reflect influence of different factors on the reliability of optical fiber cable. Experimental results have proved that this model is practical.

关 键 词：光缆可靠性 失效率模型 WEIBULL分布 影响参数 最大似然估计 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TN915.853[电子电信—通信与信息系统]