中国应加速推进资本账户开放吗?——基于DSGE的政策模拟研究  

Should China Accelerate the Liberalization of Capital Accounts? Perspective from the Policy Simulation of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：杨小海[1] 刘红忠[1] 王弟海[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,200433

出　　处：《经济研究》2017年第8期49-64,共16页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473041;71673049);国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA043)资助

摘　　要：长期以来,对中国资本账户开放的政策模拟往往缺乏微观基础,其所得到的结果也颇有争议。本文在DSGE两国模型的框架下,对学术界最新的方法进行了改进;同时,根据经济基本面对当下中国对外股权投资逐渐开放的过程进行政策模拟,并评估其可能存在的潜在风险。模拟结果显示,无论在哪种政策安排下,放松资本管制均会导致中国面临资本外流的压力,而且流出的速度会随着管制程度的放松而加快。基于这一分析,本文认为经济的结构性改革应优先于资本账户开放,同时发现降低居民的风险厌恶程度以及加快金融体系改革对未来缓解资本账户开放后所面临的资本外流压力大有裨益。Since 2012, when the People＇s Bank of China issued a report stating that the conditions of China＇s capital account liberalization were roughly mature, worldwide concern has aroused. There has also been heated domestic debate over the issue of capital account liberalization, with priority focused on domestic structural reforms and capital account liberalization. Due to China＇s role in the world economy,its capital account liberalization will be one of the most important inputs added to the international financial architecture in the coming years. China now faces the dilemma of whether to further open capital accounts. The RMB＇s exchange rate marketization reform has not yet been completed and the local government＇s debt leverage, shadow banking and asset bubbles are regarded as potential triggers of systematic financial risk in China. Therefore, accelerating the opening of capital accounts may result in speculative shock. However, the internationalization of the RMB as an invoicing currency and its inclusion in the special drawing rights basket would speed up China＇s capital account liberalization. The risk assessment of capital account liberalization can be traced by its impact on China＇s international investment positions. Until now, the relevant empirical studies of China＇s capital account liberalization have been questioned for their lack of a micro-foundation or an effective solution for the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model. In the traditional DSGE model, it is impossible to obtain steady-state asset allocation from the perspective of rate of return, as the return of different assets is equal in the steady state through arbitrage. As the risks of equity and bonds are different, this provides an alternative perspective to portfolio allocation. Devereux ＆ Sutherland （2011） successfully obtain analytic solutions in this regard. Following Devereux ＆ Sutherland （2011）, we establish a DSGE model focused on the extension that constrains transactions of foreign equi

关 键 词：政策模拟 资本外流 外汇储备 对外股权投资 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]