大规模传染病应急管理模型构建  

Establishment of emergency management model for infectious disease pandemic

作　　者：熊文[1] 宋劲松[2] 周清杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048 [2]国家行政学院应急管理教研部

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2017年第8期1254-1259,共6页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AJY003)

摘　　要：本研究根据知识溢出理论构建大规模传染病空间扩散模型,并通过对大规模传染病在全国的扩散过程进行的理论与模型探索构建大规模传染病病例预测模型;运用VBA计算机技术对大规模传染病空间扩散度进行估计,对大规模传染病例进行预测、预警,旨在为应急产品的生产提供解决方案。The aim of the study is to provide a solution for the production of infectious disease emergency-related appliances. The study constructs a spatial diffusion model of infectious disease pandemic according to knowledge spillover theory and then, we builds a forecasting model of infectious disease pandemic based on the exploration of the diffusion process of infectious disease pandemics in China. Finally, we use Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications （ VBA ） pro- gramming technology to estimate the degree of spatial diffusion of infectious disease pandemic and to predict the incidents of infectious disease pandemic.

关 键 词：大规模传染病 应急管理 模型 构建 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]